Irish story still the main focus!

It’s honestly that time of the year where the holiday mode and spirit kicks in. Sometimes, it’s just difficult to get into the market in-between work.

Euro I think there is definitely on a downward trend medium term (daily chart). But there is quite a bit of volatility in price-movement on an intra-day basis. We still need to watch for the Irish story to see where spot moves today.

Sterling on the other hand isn’t really moving as much as Euro, so I’m slightly neutral here and would like to see a clear trend before I enter trend oriented positions.

Aussie fundamentally should be bullish, but because of the dollar strength and risk aversion happening at the moment, it has definitely come down quite a bit. But I’d still look to buy on dips here.

Data Today

UK public finances – 8.30am GMT

US initial jobless claims – 1.30pm GMT

US leading indicators – 3pm GMT

Dollar bulls pushing against the Euro and Aussie

Whoa! Talk about some insane movements! Looks like dollar bulls have finally attacked the market!

Seems like all this talks between the US and China on foreign exchange policies is showing its effects on the markets.

According to Geithner, upward pressure on the yuan will end up in higher inflation and asset prices if the currency won’t move. He also states that China will be more confident in allowing the yuan to rise if competitor’s currencies rise too.

Euro continues its way down and breaks the strong support of 1.3650! Seems like all the concerns over the Eurozone sovereign risk is at hand. Yields on 10 year irish bonds continue to rise over comparable german debt.

On the otherhand Sterling still held up strong, due to the QE being priced out following BOE inflation report. But we have to watch how UK data comes out in the coming weak as it comes out worse, QE may end up being priced in again.

Data Today:

German GDP – 7am GMT

Eurozone GDP – 10am GMT

Eurozone industrial production – 10am GMT

University of Michigan confidence – 2.55pm GMT

is there a trend change in the Euro?

Euro seems to be in a bit of a fix at the moment. Rising credit spreads on Irish debt and German data coming in mixed last night with a fall in industrial production buy an increase in exports. We saw the Euro come off quite a bit down to just below 1.3850.

Some data out tonight that could bring some movement into the other pairs.

Data today:

UK manufacturing production – 9.30am GMT

UK industrial production – 9.30am GMT

UK trade balance – 9.30am GMT

German CPI – 7am GMT

US wholesale inventories – 3pm GMT

Some profit taking on the Euro this morning.

I was pretty much out of the market on Thursday and Friday as it was a public holiday, but wow markets did do quite some movement.

On Friday, NFP came in better than expected at 151K which saw a sell-off in the Euro and Yen against the USD. US unemployment rate remained at 9.6%.

It does seem as some profit taking is happening this morning as there is a sell-off happening on the Euro.

I’m not sure which direction markets going to head. It’s a little too high to be buying, and a little risky to be selling. I guess the best thing to do right now is just wait and watch until you see a trade coming.

Here’s the data to look out for today. It does seem to be another heavy data week, so high volatility potential this week as well.

Data Today

Euro Sentix index – 9.30am GMT

German industrial production – 11am GMT

still have ECB and BOE rates tonite

Finally the big FOMC meeting is over and the craziness of the markets last night have now consolidated.

So what exactly happened?

Fed announced the next round of QE2 of a purchase of $600 bn of long-term treasuries by the end of Q2 2011. There were no real changes of growth or inflation risk and it was this disappointment that drove the policy change.

US October ISM non-manufacturing came in better than expected at 54.3 vs consensus 53.5. The USD September factory orders were also above expectations at +2.1% vs consensus 1.6%.

We saw the Aussie, Euro and sterling climb up last night. Will have to watch out though for Europe open and today’s data to figure out where the market is heading.

Data today:

German PMI services – 9am GMT

Eurozone PPI – 10am GMT

European central bank rate decision – 12.45pm GMT

Bank of England Annouces rates and asset purchase rate – 12pm GMT

US initial jobless claims – 12.30pm

RBA increases rates!

Last night we saw the US October ISM manufacturing improve to 56.9 from 54.4 and the US September construction spending rose as well to 0.5%.

Concerns on the Irish front has investors worried and the UK manufacturing PMI was slightly better overnight which helped push the EURGBP lower.

Aussie awaits the RBA decision today, which is expected to remain the same. Ok Shocking!! RBA increased the rates by 25bps! In a span of 5 minutes AUD/USD rose 100 points!! Almost there to parity, keep a watch on this pair!

Data Today:

Reserve Bank of Australia cash target – 3.30 am GMT

German PMI Manufacturing – 9am GMT

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing – 9am GMT

UK PMI construction – 9.30am GMT

US mid term election

End of a Volatile month and lots of US data this week

It’s the first week of November and got to say October was an extremely volatile month. Are we going to see another volatile month?

Well let’s see first what went down at the end of last week.

US real GDP came out as expected and the Chicago PMI rise to 60.6 well above the consensus 58.0.

But we saw the dollar weaken against most of the currencies as investors looked ahead to the FOMC decision on November 3^rd. A lot of data coming out of the US this week, so keep a look out and play carefully on the dollar.

Sterling strengthened further on Friday with the markets covering back more shorts before the MPC meeting on Thursday.

Data Today:

UK PMI manufacturing – 930am GMT

US ISM manufacturing – 2pm GMT

US personal Income – 12.30pm GMT

US personal Spending – 12.30pm GMT

US construction Spending – 2pm GMT