Ireland package finalized

Dollar bulls must be popping bottles of champagne at the moment considering what’s been happening since last week.

On Sunday, Eurozone finance ministers approved an 85bn pound financial rescue package for Ireland, although 17.5bn of it will come from Ireland’s sovereign wealth fund and other domestic cash resources.

The Euro got a boost this morning after the announcement and traded up to 1.3355, but this was short-lived and the Euro has come off since then.

The Aussie has been following the Euro lead, and has also released worse than expected data. The Q3 business inventories and company profits came in a lot worse.

Data Today:

UK net consumer credit – 7.30am GMT

UK mortgage approvals – 7.30am GMT

Eurozone consumer confidence – 10am GMT

Eurozone industrial confidence – 10am GMT

Eurozone service confidence – 10am GMT

Eurozone business climate indicator – 10am GMT

Looks like another quiet day. Happy Thanksgiving!

Extremely quiet markets because of the thanksgiving holiday. I don’t think there will be much happening today as well, considering not much data coming out today.

Dollar yen though looks like it’s touched a resistance level at 83.80. I would look into selling here.

Data today:

German Import Price index - 7am GMT

Eurozone M3 - 9am GMT

range trades perhaps?

Today we still seem to have risk aversion going on and a stronger dollar on the whole.

US new home sales dropped down to 283k. US durable goods came off worse, and the university of Michigan confidence index rose to 71.6.

S&P downgraded Ireland to A from AA-, we saw the Euro crash below 1.3300 yesterday.

UK GDP came in line to consensus at 2.8% y/y. looks like cable may be in a tight range.

Aussie bounced up after talks that Russia will be increasing Aussie in their reserves.

There isn’t any serious data out today, so looks like we’ll still be playing the trend. I do think markets will be quiet today, since it is thanksgiving and US is not going to be open.

Today may just be a good day to practice your range trading strategies.

Dollar bulls on a sprint!

Talk about dollar bulls sprinting!!

US GDP came out stronger at 2.5%. Seemed like lots went down yesterday. North Korea shelling South Korea saw the start of the movement down, for many of the currency pairs, especially dollar-yen.

Euro on the other end traded to a low of 1.3359, after S&P cut Ireland’s rating to A.

It just seemed like yesterday, that everything was going in favor for the USD. Irish troubles and the Korean troubles brought out more risk aversion and pushed the dollar higher. On top of that the US GDP came out better than expected.

I still think we’ll be seeing more risk aversion happening, so I would still look to sell on rallies on the Euro.

Data Today:

German IFO business climate – 9am GMT

German IFO expectations – 9am GMT

UK GDP – 9.30am GMT

US durable goods order – 1.30pm GMT

University of Michigan confidence – 2.55pm GMT

US new home sales – 3pm GMT

US house price purchase index – 3pm GMT

risk aversion game play

Looks like risk aversion is the game play for today.

Dollar, yen and the suissy seem to be the safe-haven currencies for the day.

Concerns of a possible Irish downgrade and uncertainty seems to still be the topic on the Eurofront. The PIGS are back into the main picture with possible risk in the other countries, that sum up the PIGS.

Today Japan is on a holiday, so looks like yen will be in a tight range today during tokyo session, and possibly aussie as well. I’d still today look into playing Euro and sterling. Sell Euro on rallies, and also sterling.

I would though be careful during the U.S session as we have some big data coming out later today.

Data Today:

German GDP – 7am GMT

German GFK consumer confidence survey – 7am GMT

German PMI manufacturing – 8am GMT

Eurozone PMI manufacturing – 9am GMT

US Q3 GDP – 1.30pm GMT

US existing home sales – 3pm GMT

US FOMC meeting minutes – 7pm GMT

Watch out for the Euro today

So much going on this morning. China central bank has raised their reserve requirement by 50bp effective on November 29^th.

At the same time, Irish PM Cowen has applied for a bailout plan of about 80 to 90 bn Euro. This gave a boost to the Euro which opened 40 pips higher.

Aussie recovered its Friday’s losses but may just get capped out due to fear of China raising rates.

Not much coming out today on the data front, so I would keep a close watch on the Euro and the Aussie today. Looking to Buy Euro, as I do think markets will push it higher today.

Data Today:

Eurozone consumer confidence - 8.30am GMT

Are we seeing a solution for the Irish problem?

It seems like the Irish story may be reaching a conclusion. Governor Honohan became the first Irish policymaker to declare that the country would apply for aid. The package will be in the form of a joint IMF/EU loan that will “run into the tens of billions of Euro with an interest rate of 5%”. We’ve been seeing a stronger Euro this morning.

The US jobless claims matched the consensus at 439K, whereas the US leading indicators increased by 0.5%. I think yesterday’s play was more towards the news coming from Europe than the data coming out of the U.S.  For today I think the dollar may just weaken a little especially compared to the Euro.

Data Today:

German PPI – 7am GMT