Been MIA but I am back

Hey guys, I know I’ve been MIA for the past week because I fell sick so was pretty much in bed all week.

But I’m much better and ready to go this week so lets see what we have.

We saw Euro surge to a high of 1.4161 on Friday as Bernanke made the for more monetary accommodation at the fed conference. But then we saw a lot of profit taking happening which then brought the Euro down below 1.4000 setting off more trailing stops.

The sterling too headed above 1.6100 after Bernanke and then slipped back down to 1.5985.

Aussie reached parity for a few minutes after bernanke’s speech but again this didn’t last too long.

Data today:

US net long term TIC flows – 1pm GMT

US industrial production - 1.15pm GMT

US capacity utilization – 1.15pm GMT

US NAHB housing market index - 2pm GMT

Quiet day with NY and Japan off.

Japan was closed yesterday and so was New York, so nothing went on really yesterday, and I kind of gave myself a break from the market as well.

So let us see what we have today in terms of data.

Data today:

German CPI – 6am GMT

UK CPI – 8.30am GMT

US minutes of FOMC meeting – 6pm GMT

lots of data out today!

One more day of weak news coming out of the US (US ADP September US employment change came down to -39k), pushed the dollar even lower. According to the IMF the Euro is valued fairly but the dollar is slightly undervalued, which I completely agree to.

The Euro pushing all the way up to 1.3930, and it definitely looks as though the trend is intact despite the Greece concerns and Ireland’s downgrade. We will have to see this afternoon what the ECB has to say. I’m hoping to see some retracement to the downside.

The yen as well pushed lower to 82.75 with no signs of BOJ intervention. Lets see how long it takes before the BOJ intervenes.

I’m thinking markets are going to be fairly quiet today considering all the data coming out later this afternoon, so let’s see how things go, I’m going to be wishing for some retracement to the downside, not sure if my wishes will come true.

Data today

German industrial production – 10am GMT

ECB rate decision – 11.45am GMT

ECB Trichet speech – 12.30pm GMT

UK industrial production – 8.30am GMT

UK manufacturing production – 8.30am GMT

BOE rate decision – 11am GMT

US initial jobless claims – 1.30pm GMT

US consumer credit – 7pm GMT

Euro and Sterling breaking its top

Aussie and the yen were extremely volatile during the beginning of the Asian session yesterday.

Yen saw the low of 82.96 last night before some buying pulled up the market to close above 83.00.  BOJ cut target for overnight rates to a range of 0.0%-0.1% from its previous target of 0.1%.

AUD dropped down to below 0.9550 but then recovered all its losses.

Euro trudged even higher up yesterday pushing up to 1.3850.

Sterling as well pushed up above 1.5900 and broke 1.5920 levels. Will be interesting to see if it can stay this high and push towards 1.6000.

Data today

Euro zone GDP – 9am GMT

German Factory Orders – 10am GMT

US ADP Employment change  - 12.15pm GMT

Hit the sterling!

Wow was today crazy or what!

so much movement that it actually got little confusing over whether to enter or not.

But I did see sterling hit the high of 1.5911 which I saw as a good entry level for a sell position as it has been a pretty strong resistance level.

So i sold at 1.5877, as soon as i felt that sterling was going to head lower.

here's the chart, and keeping a stoploss just above at 1.5930 which is the next resistance level.

happy trading!

RBA rate decision in 5 minutes!

Let's look at the data last night.

US factory orders fell down to 0.5% whereas the US pending home sales index rose up to 4.3%.

Euro stays under pressure this morning trading to a low of 1.3644. European debt worries seem to be holding up as Ireland’s central bank cuts growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011.

Australia retail sales came down to 0.3% and the trade balance increased to +2.346 bn. Aussie seems to have come off to a low of 0.9650. Will have to wait and see what happens at the RBA rate decision.

Data today

RBA rate decision 3.30am GMT

German PMI services – 7.53am GMT

Eurozone PMI composite – 7.58am GMT

Eurozone retail sales – 9am GMT

UK PMI services – 8.30am GMT

US ISM non-manufacturing composite – 2pm GMT

still waiting for a trend reversal

Sterling looks a little heavy this morning after the markets ran the barriers in EURGBP, taking it from 0.8720 to 0.8758 highs.

On the Aussie from markets are waiting it out for the RBA rate decision tomorrow.

Data today

Eurozone PPI – 9am GMT

UK PMI construction – 830am GMT

US factory orders – 2pm GMT

US pending home sales – 2pm GMT