Friday, May 27, 2011

End of month profit taking perhaps?

So looks like we got some profit taking and retracement going on right now with dollar being bearish.

Euro rebounded after the US GDP came out weaker at 1.8% vs cons of 2.2%. The US unemployment claims didn't help either and came out worse at 424k vs cons of 403k.

Cable was held higher through the help of real money and Asian investors. It got a further boost from Citi/ Yougov survey which showed that the UK inflation expectation for the year ahead rose slightly in May after falling in April.

AUD capex for Q1 beat expectations which saw the Aussie run higher against the dollar.

Overall it was a lower USD that we've seen from yesterday onwards with a risk-on situation occurring.

In terms of my positions, I unfortunately got stopped out on both my positions, which you can see on my positions page.

We have some data coming out tonight from the U.S

Data Today
US university of Michigan consumer sentiment - 1.55pm GMT
US pending home sales - 2pm GMT

Happy Trading!

Thursday, May 26, 2011

New open positions page!

I've added in a new page titled "My open fx positions"  which i'll be using as a journal to track my open positions.

It's quite basic right now, as i'm trying to figure out how i could get it to look more like an excel sheet. I am quite hopeless at this. If you have any ideas please do let me know!!

Happy Trading!

Looks like markets a correcting a little

Looks like we've got a bit of a correction going on in the market, after the USD bull run we've been seeing lately.

Cable pushed higher yesterday after the UK GDP came out as expected at 0.5%. Also USD seemed to be extremely overbought, so we did see a lot of traders taking profits.

on the Euro front, a bit of see-sawing going on there. earlier yesterday it hit the lows of 1.4011 after some market rumors about the greek PM resigning. Additionally WSJ came out with an article about US banks possibly holding $17 bn liability in lawsuits!! However, we saw the Euro rebound during the NY session up to 1.4118, after equities and oil rebounded.

This morning Euro gained support as well after a FT article came out stating China is to buy Europe's bailout bond.

Tonight we only have data coming out of the U.S so keep a watch on those figures!

Data Today
US GDP - 12.30pm GMT
US unemployment claims - 12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Credit outlook downgrade galore

Last night was credit outlook downgrade night! S&P lowered Italy's outlook and Fitch downgraded Belgium outlook to negative. On top of that the Greek finance minister Papaconstantinou implied that if Greece doesn't receive the next quarterly tranche of cash it will be forced to default.

Across the channel, 14 out of 18 UK banks are on review for downgrade by Moody.

With all this negative news coming out of Europe and the UK, and asian stock markets facing a gloomy start to the week, we did see the Aussie dragged lower as well.

JPY crosses took a battering too, as lower equities and risk aversion pulled in a demand for JPY against higher yield currencies.

This morning we did see some consolidation in the Euro and a bit of a rally up just now after the Germany IFO came out better at 114.2 vs the consensus of 113.7. I've still got my short EUR/USD order in place at 1.4140, and my short GBP/USD order at 1.6200. UK public sector borrowing came out worse at 7.713bn vs 5.35bn. Looks like we may just see another bearish cable and euro today.

for tonight we still have the U.S new home sales come in at 2pm GMT.

I case you're wondering why i keep saying tonight, it's because I live in Singapore, so the data timings for me always end up being in the evening and night for me.

Happy Trading!

Monday, May 23, 2011

Euro plummets

Down plummets the Euro! why? Fitch cut Greece's rating from BB+ to B+.
The trend has definitely changed for a lower Euro, but with summer coming up, i'm not sure how long this trend will carry. But for now i'm definitly leaving short orders on the Euro and Cable.

This week in terms of data, we have the GDP prints for Germany, US and UK, so keep a look out for these.

There definitly seems to be a strong bidding interest for the USDJPY, with all the issues propping up for Japan. Looking to buy at any dip!

Market is still short dollar against commodity currencies, i.e Aussie.

Today we did have the Germany PMI and the Europe PMI, which did come out lower and we just saw stops being triggered pushing the Euro lower past 1.3980.

My trades today, well spot is quite low to be entering the Euro or cable so i've left orders at 1.4140 and 1.6200.

I'm trying to figure out if there is an easier way to blog my positions, so that's a mini project i'm working on at the moment.

it's almost the end of the month and summer is here!

Happy Trading!

Friday, May 20, 2011

Strauss-Kahn's Case with a touch of humor

All week we've been hearing about Dominique Strauss-Kahn's sexual assault case, which has put the IMF under the spot-light. there have also been several debates over who would take Kahn's place, that has always been held by a European.

Is it time for someone from the emerging markets to take his place? There are a lot of well qualified Asian candidates.  It will be interesting to see how this issue eventually plays out.

Taken with a pinch of salt, I've found some political cartoons on Strauss-Kahn which are quite cheeky!

What's your take on this issue?

Dominique Strauss-Kahn is getting called out by an institution that has been raping nations for years.

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, , who was widely expected to become the Socialist candidate for the French presidency, stands accused of sex crimes. Guilty or innocent, the accusation itself will probably mean the end of his political career.

After the "Strauss-Kahn affaire" the "head" of the french Socialist Party it's been decapitated. Who will be the new leader running for Presidency against Sarkozy?

In France, there are rumours that president Sarkozy could be involved in framing Dominique Strauss-Kahn, to keep him out of the Presidential elections.

Happy Trading!

New blog layout!!


So i changed the layout of my blog! What do you guys think? would love to read your views!

Happy Trading!