End of month profit taking perhaps?

So looks like we got some profit taking and retracement going on right now with dollar being bearish.

Euro rebounded after the US GDP came out weaker at 1.8% vs cons of 2.2%. The US unemployment claims didn't help either and came out worse at 424k vs cons of 403k.

Cable was held higher through the help of real money and Asian investors. It got a further boost from Citi/ Yougov survey which showed that the UK inflation expectation for the year ahead rose slightly in May after falling in April.

AUD capex for Q1 beat expectations which saw the Aussie run higher against the dollar.

Overall it was a lower USD that we've seen from yesterday onwards with a risk-on situation occurring.

In terms of my positions, I unfortunately got stopped out on both my positions, which you can see on my positions page.

We have some data coming out tonight from the U.S

Data Today
US university of Michigan consumer sentiment - 1.55pm GMT
US pending home sales - 2pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Looks like markets a correcting a little

Looks like we've got a bit of a correction going on in the market, after the USD bull run we've been seeing lately.

Cable pushed higher yesterday after the UK GDP came out as expected at 0.5%. Also USD seemed to be extremely overbought, so we did see a lot of traders taking profits.

on the Euro front, a bit of see-sawing going on there. earlier yesterday it hit the lows of 1.4011 after some market rumors about the greek PM resigning. Additionally WSJ came out with an article about US banks possibly holding $17 bn liability in lawsuits!! However, we saw the Euro rebound during the NY session up to 1.4118, after equities and oil rebounded.

This morning Euro gained support as well after a FT article came out stating China is to buy Europe's bailout bond.

Tonight we only have data coming out of the U.S so keep a watch on those figures!

Data Today
US GDP - 12.30pm GMT
US unemployment claims - 12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Credit outlook downgrade galore

Last night was credit outlook downgrade night! S&P lowered Italy's outlook and Fitch downgraded Belgium outlook to negative. On top of that the Greek finance minister Papaconstantinou implied that if Greece doesn't receive the next quarterly tranche of cash it will be forced to default.

Across the channel, 14 out of 18 UK banks are on review for downgrade by Moody.

With all this negative news coming out of Europe and the UK, and asian stock markets facing a gloomy start to the week, we did see the Aussie dragged lower as well.

JPY crosses took a battering too, as lower equities and risk aversion pulled in a demand for JPY against higher yield currencies.

This morning we did see some consolidation in the Euro and a bit of a rally up just now after the Germany IFO came out better at 114.2 vs the consensus of 113.7. I've still got my short EUR/USD order in place at 1.4140, and my short GBP/USD order at 1.6200. UK public sector borrowing came out worse at 7.713bn vs 5.35bn. Looks like we may just see another bearish cable and euro today.

for tonight we still have the U.S new home sales come in at 2pm GMT.

I case you're wondering why i keep saying tonight, it's because I live in Singapore, so the data timings for me always end up being in the evening and night for me.

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Euro plummets

Down plummets the Euro! why? Fitch cut Greece's rating from BB+ to B+.
The trend has definitely changed for a lower Euro, but with summer coming up, i'm not sure how long this trend will carry. But for now i'm definitly leaving short orders on the Euro and Cable.

This week in terms of data, we have the GDP prints for Germany, US and UK, so keep a look out for these.

There definitly seems to be a strong bidding interest for the USDJPY, with all the issues propping up for Japan. Looking to buy at any dip!

Market is still short dollar against commodity currencies, i.e Aussie.

Today we did have the Germany PMI and the Europe PMI, which did come out lower and we just saw stops being triggered pushing the Euro lower past 1.3980.

My trades today, well spot is quite low to be entering the Euro or cable so i've left orders at 1.4140 and 1.6200.

I'm trying to figure out if there is an easier way to blog my positions, so that's a mini project i'm working on at the moment.

it's almost the end of the month and summer is here!

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

New week and Euro looks to be in trouble.

It's a new week! and we have an extremely low Euro!!

we've seen some serious dollar strength lately and alot of long Euro, Cable and USDJPY positions been taken off.  To top it off, we heard of IMF managing director Strauss-Kahn being arrested on saturday in New York and charges with several sexual assault offences. Doesn't look too good for the Euro to be honest!!

the Yen has been struggling to rally against the USD even though the dollar strength is quite significant. Seems like JPY strength is playing through on the crosses end as EURJPY and GBPJPY trade lower.

We do have some data to look out for today!!

Tomorrow is a public holiday for me as it's Vesak day ( Buddha's Birthday), so i'm going to be chilling by the pool and sipping a few mojitos tomorrow!

Data Today
EUR CPI - 9am GMT
EUR trade balance - 9am GMT
US empire state manufacturing - 12.30pm GMT
US TIC long-term purchases - 1pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

back from an amazing vacation!

Hello fellow traders!

I've just gotten back this week from an amazing mini  vacation trip which also included my best friend's wedding!

still suffering from a bit of a holiday hangover, so getting back into the markets taken me a bit longer. Definitely seems as though dollar bulls have been on a partying streak too, when i look at the charts!

Finally the Greece debt worries has pulled the Euro down, as well as the sell-off in commodities especially oil! I do see Euro approaching a strong support level at 1.4160, so lets see what happens there.

last night was the GBP inflation report which of course came out higher, which initially pushed the sterling higher on the market belief that a rate hike could take place in august. But that didn't last too long as the stronger risk sell-off movement pushed cable lower again.

there's data out tonight too, but does seem as risk-aversion is taking place. Do we see a trend change towards a dollar bull?

Data Today
UK industrial and manufacturing production - 8.30am GMT
EUR industrial production - 9am GMT
US retail sales - 12.30pm GMT
US jobless claims -12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Easter Weekend is over, and we're back into the trading week

That was one extremely relaxing long weekend!! I hope all you traders had a great Easter weekend!!

We still have most of Europe on bank holidays so we’ll probably see a thin market tonight until U.S opens.

Not much happened during the weekend. China laid low on their monetary policies and Europe and U.S were closed on Friday for Good Friday.

ECB member Stark repeated his opposition towards restructuring the greek debt and BOJ Shirakawa has implied that the BOJ is not likely to take additional easing measures at the policy meeting on Thursday.

We haven’t got much data today, and most traders are anticipating the FOMC meeting later this week!

Data Today

US new home sales – 2pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Oversold USD perhaps?

Woohoo! A long weekend after ages thanks to Easter and good Friday!!

Let’s see what we have in terms of data today, it’s been quite a volatile market, seems like USD has been extremely oversold.

USD started off stronger versus most of the G10 currencies, but this turned quickly after the S&P put a negative outlook on US credit ratings for the first time!

Euro pushed lower as model names and asset managers exited their longs on the break of 1.4280-85. Finland’s election results and risk fear on Greece debt has weakened the Euro a lot. But at the same time I would be careful before I enter a short position, as USD has been fairly oversold in the past weeks.

RBA minutes came out this morning! The minutes suggest a strong pick-up in business investments and seem to balance a strong medium outlook. Didn’t cause much movement on the Aussie after the data, but still looking fairly bullish, so buy on dips!

Data Today

Reserve Bank of Australia April minutes – 1am GMT

US housing starts – 12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

quiet session yesterday.

It was another quiet session yesterday with risk sentiment being slightly choppy. Retail sales were slightly below consensus at 0.4% and the beige book noted the economy is expanding with widespread gains in February and March.

Belgium Central Bank Governor Coene said that "Trichet gave a signal that the ECB hike was not a one-off" and it should "not be seen as a totally isolated decision". These comments to some extent go against what Trichet said in the last meeting when he implied it wasn't the start of a tightening cycle and rate expectations continue to support the euro.

UK employment data was mixed with claims rising by 700 but the ILO unemployment rate ticked down to 7.8%.

RBA Governor Stevens did not deviate from his neutral stance as a lot of his comments focused on economic developments outside of Australia. He said it is risky to keep the price of money very low for a very long time and suggested that EM countries that are concerned with capital flows could let their exchange rates move. Stevens also said it is "highly unlikely" that Australia would adopt capital controls.

Data Today

ECB publises April monthly report – 8am GMT

US Initial Jobless Claims – 12.30pm GMT

US PPI – 12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Mixed dollar last night

The dollar was mixed last night, where it weakened against the EUR and AUD, but strengthened against the yen. A disappointing UK CPI helped the dollar against the sterling, but until there’s more clarity on the Fed’s next step, the dollar will be prone to weakness.

ZEW surveys in Germany were mixed with the current situation indicator rising to 87.10 while the economic growth sentiment indicator fell back to 7.60.

UK headline CPI was below consensus at 4%, which hurt sterling initially.

Messy price action in the USDJPY followed closely to the development of the nuclear incident in Japan and the stock markets.

Data Today

Eurozone Industrial Production – 9am GMT

UK Unemployment Rate  - 8.30am GMT

UK jobless claims change – 8.30am GMT

US Retail Sales - 12.30pm GMT

US Fed Beige Book – 5pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Downhill for the Dollar!

The dollar continued its downhill trend on Friday as risk appetite remained supported. China trade data over the weekend showed a sharp rebound in March which is likely to support risk appetite today. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated that the ECB’s interest rate hike on Thursday has no effect on the Fed’s policy posture.

BOJ governor Shirakwa commented that Japan’s economy is under strong downward pressure mainly in production after the quake. There is risk that the BOJ may be forced to ease again if the expected economic rebound doesn’t happen. This would be JPY negative.

On Friday the IMF confirmed that Portugal has asked for assistance and that the fund is “prepared to move expeditiously”. A weekend press article also reported that several EU finance ministers are favoring a Greek debt restructuring, but on the other end Trichet has asked for all parties to stick to the original terms of the rescue plan.

BOE member Sentence has again called for an interest rate hike which has supported the sterling. An initial BOE hike in May is expected and priced into the market already.

There aren’t any important data out today, so we’ll just have to keep a watch for any possible comments that may be spoken tonight. I know I have been quite sporadic on my updates on the blog, I guess April has been a crazy month outside of my trading! I am going to try as hard as I can to update more regularly.

Data Today

No important data out today

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Are we going to see more high's today on the yen and sterling?

The FOMC minutes confirmed a divergence in views among the Fed officials which helped to keep the USDJPY up. It seems as though the market is holding their horses as they await for the rate decisions.

The Euro retreated on the announcement that Moody’s revised their rating for Portugal. EU PMI improved to 56.9.

Japan Finance Minister Noda said he would continue to seek cooperation from his G7 counterparts at an upcoming meeting.

UK PMI came in better at 57.1 which increases the likelihood of a rate hike in may. UK manufacturing production came out 30 minutes back and was a slight disappointment at 0% vs consensus of 0.6%. We saw cable drop lower to 1.6270 levels.

Data Today

UK Industrial Production - 8.30am GMT

UK Manufacturing Production – 8.30am GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

what does our first week of April have installed for us!

4 months into the year already!! Time really flies when you’re having fun trading!

So April fools day we saw the dollar triumph after stronger-than-expected payroll report. Unfortunately this triumph ended quickly after dovish comments by New York Fed president Dudley who stated that there’s no reason for a pull-back on monetary stimulus.

USDJPY exploded higher as well to 84.73 but dipped lower on profit taking. The question still remains on how Japan will fund the post-earthquake reconstruction.

Euro has been a bit dull to be honest with investors fixated on the upcoming ECB policy meeting. The Euro was fairily indifferent to the sovereign rating actions that occurred on Friday. Fitch downgraded Portugal to BBB- and the S&P cut Ireland’s rating to BBB+.

The Aussie broke through 1.0400 this morning as risk appetite improves. This week we have 2 important data coming out of Australia; RBA rate decision and jobs data.

Monday morning’s can always be incredibly quiet. I guess traders use Asian session to wake-up!!

Data Today

Eurozone PPI – 9am GMT

UK Construction PMI – 8.30am GMT

UK Halifax House Prices – 7am GMT

US Fed’s Bernanke, Lockhart and Evans speech – 1pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Stress tests tonite on Ireland.

I've been so caught up with my work that i've not been able to follow the markets properly this week. Seems like i may have missed some movements, what a bummer!!

So let me update all of you and myself with what's been happening with the markets.

looks like risk sentiment has been improving following US labor market data. ADP employment report showed +201k for march which is in line with expectations and quite supportive for this Friday payroll release. USD looks weaker though today on month end selling as well as because of Bullard stating he's the minority to think of cutting short QE2.

On the Eurozone front, looks like from portugal now we have stress test results coming in tonight on Ireland. Reuter's survey showed showed expectations that about EUR 25bn of the EUR 35bn set aside for banks under the EU/IMF plan will be required following the release of the test results today. Just in we saw a much improved German jobless rate.

Sterling seems to be following the Eurozone lead and was supported by the selling of EURGBP on speculation of a large M&A deal.

Aussie retail sales came in higher at +0.5% with building approvals coming in lower at -7.4%. Aussie seems to be supported due to the demand in AUDJPY.

We do have quite a bit of data tonite so keep a watch on that.

Data Today

UK Nationwide House prices - 6am GMT

German Unemployment Rate - 6am GMT

Euro-zone CPI estimate - 9am GMT

US Initial Jobless Claims - 12.30pm GMT

US Chicago Purchasing Manager - 1.45pm GMT

US Factory Orders - 2pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Portugal makes the headlines again!

Eurozone’s worries and disappointment from the BOE minutes benefitted the dollar. But this didn’t last long as US new home sales disappointed with a large drop.

Euro came under pressure on concerns that Portugal will require a bailout after its parliament rejected minority government’s austerity measures.

Bank of England MPC voted 6- as expected, and rates tone is pretty much the same from February. But the March meeting occurred before events in Japan and MENA, so April’s meeting maybe a lot more cautious which brought the sterling lower.

Japanese authorities noted the stock loss of the Japanese earthquake would range between JPY 15-25 tln.

It’s amazing how when you’re not watching the market for one day, trends and movements come about! We have some important data out today from the UK and the U.S which could move the sterling. Also on the Euro front, I think the Portugal issue should be monitored. My opinion though, I would look at this downward movement as a retracement rather than a trend change, and will hope to enter a long position once I get a trigger on my charts.

Data Today

UK Retail Sales – 9.30am GMT

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing – 9am GMT

Eurozone PMI services – 9am GMT

German PMI Manufacturing – 8.30am GMT

German PMI services – 8.30am GMT

US Core Durable Goods Orders – 12.30pm GMT

US Initial Jobless Claims – 12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Some risk sentiment has returned. USD gets beaten again!

Dollar performance was mixed again during the New York session as some risk sentiment came back. The treasury department announced it would unwind its remaining $142bn of agency – guaranteed mortgage-backed securities which caused treasury yields and dollar strength. These moves retraced back down as worse than expected home sales data came out of the U.S.

ECB President Trichet reinforced the pre-existing message that “strong vigilance” is needed on inflation.

Yen was capped yesterday as more stable risk sentiment and high probability of G7 intervention are limiting the demand for the currency. Moody’s said the downside risks from Japan’s disasters have increased.

Today we have the UK CPI which could bring some movement in GBP. Considering that risk sentiment has come back and another ECB hawkish statement, I’d look into buying into dips on the Euro, USDJPY and Sterling. Aussie seems to be trotting away higher as well the strongest.

This morning has been fairly quiet with some USDJPY movement downwards to below 81.00 levels.

Data Today

UK CPI – 9.30am GMT

UK Public Finances – 9.30am GMT

US house price index – 2pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Japan on holiday, and Libyan Crisis is still the headline

This weekend we saw an escalation in the crisis in Libya and Japan’s nuclear issues are still a concern. On Saturday, military action was launched against Libya and the US and French defense authorities went on record saying a de-facto no fly-zone is in place through the country.  The USD and JPY have suffered from higher oil prices and its hard to predict how USDJPY will perform.

EURUSD rallied after Libya announced a cease-fire, but the situation remains uncertain.

There was no follow through joint intervention, so we saw USDJPY retreat to levels below 81 this morning. With Japan out on holiday today, expect a thin market. Rumors over ECB intervening in EURJPY saw the pair rocket up to 115 before settling lower as USDJPY momentum stalled.

AUDUSD lagged behind as China raised its reserve ratio by another half a percent. But we see AUDUSD rallying upwards at the moment.

BOE policy decision minutes will be released this week as well as the budget.

It’s been a relatively quiet asian market, with the Aussie rallying above parity. I do expect some volatility when Europe and the U.S open. Keep an eye on the news today on any updates from Libya and Japan. Also Trichet speaks today, so we may hear some comments today too.

Data Today

US Existing home sales – 2pm GMT

ECB Trichet speaks

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

BOJ intervention this morning. G7 intervention ahead? Weaker yen?

Price action was fairly quiet during US session ahead of the G7 call on Japan. U.S initial jobless claims fell as expected and continued to signal an improving labor market. CPI rose as expected as well and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing figure hit a high of 43.4. the G7 made a statement that they would monitor exchange markets closely and to cooperate as appropriate.

The Euro held strong during the European session due to the strong Spanish bond auction. It stayed firm overnight against the USD while the crosses were a whole different story.

USDJPY was quite range-bound yesterday during London and New York session. The massive move this morning upwards came about as G7 ministers agreed on a joint intervention and we saw BOJ intervening into the market. USDJPY spiked up 150 points on the move.

Aussie had a short movement on the downside when update on the UN Security Council vote emerged after the New York close. The vote went in favor of establishing a no-fly zone in Libya, which gives the go ahead for military intervention in the North African state.

After that massive move on yen, it’s been a little quiet. I’m hoping for a retracement on yen so that I can buy into it, as I do see USDJPY hitting 83 levels and maybe even 85!

Anyone managed to profit from that massive yen move?

Data Today

German PPI – 7am GMT

Eurozone trade balance – 9am GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Japan nuclear headlines brings USDJPY to an all-time low!

All attention was on Japan again last night as the nuclear fear became stronger. USDJPY set an all-time low of 76.25 last night after continued headlines related to the nuclear reactors in Japan and when the EU’s energy said things are “out of control” in Japan and that there could be a catastrophe in a matter of hours. There was no sign of the BOJ as USDJPY rebounded to around 79.

Euro weakened as well during the flight to safe havens. Moody’s downgrade of Portugal by two-notches to A3, outlook negative brought the rating into line with S&P.

UK February claimant count came in better at -10.2k, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%.

We do have quite a lot of data coming out tonite from the U.S. Overall it still looks like bearish market considering the Japan nuclear issue hasn’t been resolved yet. I do expect BOJ to intervene at some point, as USDJPY can’t remain so strong for Japan. It’s been an extremely difficult week to get trades in, a lot of the movement seems to happen when I’m not watching the market, and I am a little wary of placing market orders for new positions.

Data Today

US CPI – 12.30pm GMT

US initial jobless claims – 12.30pm GMT

US Industrial production – 1.15pm GMT

US Philadelphia Fed index – 2pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

All eyes are on Japan and FOMC rate decision tonight.

It was a relatively quiet US session with no economic data and no Fed speakers.

Attention was still on the situation in Japan.

Euro traded higher as ECB governing council member Bini-Smaghi continued to signal an imminent hike in interest rates.

Bank of Japan made no changes to the policy rate and the maximum size of the asset purchase facility was double to JPY 10 trn. S&P said the earthquake has no immediate impact on Japan’s sovereign rating and Moody’s said it is unlikely that the earthquake would affect Japan’s rating. However Moody’s said the quake may have hastened the point at which investors lose confidence in the public finances.

Sterling was boosted when Fitch affirmed the UK’s AAA rating, noting that the risks to the rating are reduced by a strong and credible fiscal consolidation program.

Things are still not looking that good in Japan with this whole fear of a nuclear meltdown. It’s quite scary and I do hope this nuclear situation gets resolved. We do have quite a lot of data tonight, and looks like markets are still quite volatile and risk averse.

Quite a difficult market at the moment, what do you think?

Data Today

Eurozone Employment – 10am GMT

German ZEW Survey – 10am GMT

Eurozone ZEW survey – 10am GMT

US Empire Manufacturing – 12.30pm GMT

US Import price index

US Net Long term TIC flows – 1pm GMT

US FOMC Rate Decision at 18.15 GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian