Monday, January 24, 2011

dollar plummets!


The dollar plummeted on Friday against its G10 peers! European officials are coming closer to coming up with a solution to the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

Investors are likely to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting for this week.  

Germany January IFO climate n export is good at 10.3 vs 109.9 cons.

Uk December retail sales dropped down more than expected to -0.8% vs -0.3% cons.

It’s quite a directionless scenario at the moment in Asia open. Investors seem to be looking at European session to form their trades later this evening. We’ve got European data coming out this evening which could provide movement, so keep a watch for later.


Data today
German PMI Manufacturing -8.30am GMT
German PMI Services – 8.30am GMT
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing -9am GMT
Eurozone PMI Services – 9am GMT
Eurozone Industrial new orders – 10am GMT

Thursday, January 20, 2011

morning update


US housing starts and building permit data for December were mixed due to weather effects. US December housing starts -4.3% to 529k vs consensus 550k. Building permits +16.7% to 635k vs consensus 554k. Bad weather likely affected starts, but of course did not weigh on permits.

Sources quoted that the recent strength in the JPY is brought about from renew inflows to the Japanese equities. This could be explained by a potential stronger appetite for Japanese exports from its 2 biggest trading partners, US and China due to the stronger economic growth and Chinese Yuan respectively.

EURUSD retreated after reports of German government advisor was quoted as saying Greece may not be able to repay its foreign debts

i'm still waiting on the sideline at the moment waiting for a change or retracement in trend direction. Market's seem to be trending.

Data today
China Dec CPI
China Q4 GDP
China Dec Retail Sales
German PPI – 7am GMT
Eurozone consumer confidence – 3pm GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims – 1.30pm GMT
US Dec Existing Home Sales – 3pm GMT
US Leading indicators – 3pm GMT
US Philadelphia Fed index – 3pm GMT

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

up up up goes the cable


UK CPI beat market expectation yesterday, which boosted the cable up to above 1.6000.

Risk currencies did extremely well last night over risk-supportive news out of Europe, with the good Spanish auction and good german Zew data.

Aussie remained close to parity, but with China tightening to combat inflation, we could see the Aussie being shaken up a little.


Data today
UK average weekly earnings – 9.30am GMT
UK ULO unemployment rate – 9.30am GMT
UK claimant count rate – 9.30am GMT
UK Jobless claims change – 9.30am GMT
Eurozone current account – 9am GMT
US building permits – 1.30pm GMT
US housing starts – 1.30pm GMT

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

low liquidity last night. May see movement today.


A quiet session last night due to the US being on holiday. We saw the USD trade in a mixed manor, where it made gains against the Euro but weakened against the Aussie and Kiwi.

Yen struggled to test the topside and traded heavily down to 82.40.

Cable benefitted from the selling of Euro crosses as market bought Aussie and cable against the Euro.

We have quite a bit of data coming out tonite so we may just see some movement today.

Data today
Japan industrial production – 4.30am GMT
Japan capacity utilization -4.30am GMT
Japan machine tools order -4.30am GMT
UK CPI – 9.30am GMT
German ZEW survey -10am GMT
Eurozone ZEW survey – 10am GMT
US Empire Manufacturing – 1.30pm GMT
US total net TIC flows – 2pm GMT
US NAHB housing market index – 3pm GMT

Monday, January 17, 2011

Back in action for the new year!


It’s the New Year and we’re already half-way into January. I’ve been MIA as I’ve been enjoying my break from the markets, but I’m back now so let’s see what economic news we got today!

We saw risk appetite weakening on Friday after the surprise 50 bp hike of China’s reserve ratio.

Fitch downgrade of Greece, but this play was more of a catch up, as Moody’s and S&P have already rated Greece as junk.

Aussie took a beating after China’s decision, and domestic news of the flooding situation did not help as well.

It looks like we don’t have any data coming out today, so keep a watch on trend plays once the Europe opens. The U.S is closed today because of Martin Luther King Day. So we may just see a quiet market later in the evening.