Easter Weekend is over, and we're back into the trading week

That was one extremely relaxing long weekend!! I hope all you traders had a great Easter weekend!!

We still have most of Europe on bank holidays so we’ll probably see a thin market tonight until U.S opens.

Not much happened during the weekend. China laid low on their monetary policies and Europe and U.S were closed on Friday for Good Friday.

ECB member Stark repeated his opposition towards restructuring the greek debt and BOJ Shirakawa has implied that the BOJ is not likely to take additional easing measures at the policy meeting on Thursday.

We haven’t got much data today, and most traders are anticipating the FOMC meeting later this week!

Data Today

US new home sales – 2pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Taking a peak at the yen today!

the USDJPY looks interesting today. Take a look at the daily chart!

As you can see there is a strong support level holding up at 81.43! apart from that massive movement (red candle when japan earthquake happened). This level has been strongly supported.

USDJPY also looks like it may hit towards that level today. I'm going to watch this level extremely closely today. But instead of looking at the daily chart i'm going to watch the 4 hour chart. If i see a candle close below 81.43 i'm going to hit a short for another break lower. If i see this level supported I'll hit a buy.

It is Good Friday tomorrow which means i'm on vacation! and Easter Sunday this weekend yippee!!


Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Quick update on my Euro chart attack - entered a buy!

So i kept watching the Euro chart and look what we have! a candle closed above 1.4502.
I entered into a long position when then next candle opened.

My Trade Plan
Long EUR/USD at 1.4518
stoploss: 1.4492 (10 pips lower than resistance level 1.4502)
when spot moves 50 pips up to 1.4568 i'll move my stoploss to breakeven at 1.4518
when spot hit 1.4618 i'll keep a trailing stop of 20 pips


Update
spot has breached 1.4568. I've moved my stoploss to 1.4518.
spot breached 1.4618 and kept a trailing stop of 20 pips
Got stopped out at 1.4621.
profit = 103 pips!

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Euro chart attack and an update on the Aussie chart attack

Look at the Euro today!!! pounced right back up!! spot at the moment is at 1.4506.

Looking at the 4 hour chart we see the Euro has breached the resistance level of 1.4502. Two things can happen here, Euro can move lower from here, or break the resistance level and head up.

My plan is to watch if the candle closes below or above this resistance level!

Update on the Aussie chart attack!
Last night Aussie did not reach my support level so i didn't enter into the trade. What a shame!!! looking at how high Aussie has run up today!

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Aussie chart attack!

here's an interesting AUD/USD setup!

Looking at the 4-hour chart, i see a strong resistance at 1.0573 and a strong resistance turned support at 1.0418. Aussie still looks as though it could push a little lower from spot (1.0470).

Here's the plan!

If spot comes close to 1.0418 and if the candle closes above this level i will look to buy here for another movement up.

If the candle closes below this level completely, i will look to sell here for a break-out lower!

what y'all think?

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Oversold USD perhaps?

Woohoo! A long weekend after ages thanks to Easter and good Friday!!

Let’s see what we have in terms of data today, it’s been quite a volatile market, seems like USD has been extremely oversold.

USD started off stronger versus most of the G10 currencies, but this turned quickly after the S&P put a negative outlook on US credit ratings for the first time!

Euro pushed lower as model names and asset managers exited their longs on the break of 1.4280-85. Finland’s election results and risk fear on Greece debt has weakened the Euro a lot. But at the same time I would be careful before I enter a short position, as USD has been fairly oversold in the past weeks.

RBA minutes came out this morning! The minutes suggest a strong pick-up in business investments and seem to balance a strong medium outlook. Didn’t cause much movement on the Aussie after the data, but still looking fairly bullish, so buy on dips!

Data Today

Reserve Bank of Australia April minutes – 1am GMT

US housing starts – 12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

quiet session yesterday.

It was another quiet session yesterday with risk sentiment being slightly choppy. Retail sales were slightly below consensus at 0.4% and the beige book noted the economy is expanding with widespread gains in February and March.

Belgium Central Bank Governor Coene said that "Trichet gave a signal that the ECB hike was not a one-off" and it should "not be seen as a totally isolated decision". These comments to some extent go against what Trichet said in the last meeting when he implied it wasn't the start of a tightening cycle and rate expectations continue to support the euro.

UK employment data was mixed with claims rising by 700 but the ILO unemployment rate ticked down to 7.8%.

RBA Governor Stevens did not deviate from his neutral stance as a lot of his comments focused on economic developments outside of Australia. He said it is risky to keep the price of money very low for a very long time and suggested that EM countries that are concerned with capital flows could let their exchange rates move. Stevens also said it is "highly unlikely" that Australia would adopt capital controls.

Data Today

ECB publises April monthly report – 8am GMT

US Initial Jobless Claims – 12.30pm GMT

US PPI – 12.30pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Mixed dollar last night

The dollar was mixed last night, where it weakened against the EUR and AUD, but strengthened against the yen. A disappointing UK CPI helped the dollar against the sterling, but until there’s more clarity on the Fed’s next step, the dollar will be prone to weakness.

ZEW surveys in Germany were mixed with the current situation indicator rising to 87.10 while the economic growth sentiment indicator fell back to 7.60.

UK headline CPI was below consensus at 4%, which hurt sterling initially.

Messy price action in the USDJPY followed closely to the development of the nuclear incident in Japan and the stock markets.

Data Today

Eurozone Industrial Production – 9am GMT

UK Unemployment Rate  - 8.30am GMT

UK jobless claims change – 8.30am GMT

US Retail Sales - 12.30pm GMT

US Fed Beige Book – 5pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Downhill for the Dollar!

The dollar continued its downhill trend on Friday as risk appetite remained supported. China trade data over the weekend showed a sharp rebound in March which is likely to support risk appetite today. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated that the ECB’s interest rate hike on Thursday has no effect on the Fed’s policy posture.

BOJ governor Shirakwa commented that Japan’s economy is under strong downward pressure mainly in production after the quake. There is risk that the BOJ may be forced to ease again if the expected economic rebound doesn’t happen. This would be JPY negative.

On Friday the IMF confirmed that Portugal has asked for assistance and that the fund is “prepared to move expeditiously”. A weekend press article also reported that several EU finance ministers are favoring a Greek debt restructuring, but on the other end Trichet has asked for all parties to stick to the original terms of the rescue plan.

BOE member Sentence has again called for an interest rate hike which has supported the sterling. An initial BOE hike in May is expected and priced into the market already.

There aren’t any important data out today, so we’ll just have to keep a watch for any possible comments that may be spoken tonight. I know I have been quite sporadic on my updates on the blog, I guess April has been a crazy month outside of my trading! I am going to try as hard as I can to update more regularly.

Data Today

No important data out today

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Are we going to see more high's today on the yen and sterling?

The FOMC minutes confirmed a divergence in views among the Fed officials which helped to keep the USDJPY up. It seems as though the market is holding their horses as they await for the rate decisions.

The Euro retreated on the announcement that Moody’s revised their rating for Portugal. EU PMI improved to 56.9.

Japan Finance Minister Noda said he would continue to seek cooperation from his G7 counterparts at an upcoming meeting.

UK PMI came in better at 57.1 which increases the likelihood of a rate hike in may. UK manufacturing production came out 30 minutes back and was a slight disappointment at 0% vs consensus of 0.6%. We saw cable drop lower to 1.6270 levels.

Data Today

UK Industrial Production - 8.30am GMT

UK Manufacturing Production – 8.30am GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

what does our first week of April have installed for us!

4 months into the year already!! Time really flies when you’re having fun trading!

So April fools day we saw the dollar triumph after stronger-than-expected payroll report. Unfortunately this triumph ended quickly after dovish comments by New York Fed president Dudley who stated that there’s no reason for a pull-back on monetary stimulus.

USDJPY exploded higher as well to 84.73 but dipped lower on profit taking. The question still remains on how Japan will fund the post-earthquake reconstruction.

Euro has been a bit dull to be honest with investors fixated on the upcoming ECB policy meeting. The Euro was fairily indifferent to the sovereign rating actions that occurred on Friday. Fitch downgraded Portugal to BBB- and the S&P cut Ireland’s rating to BBB+.

The Aussie broke through 1.0400 this morning as risk appetite improves. This week we have 2 important data coming out of Australia; RBA rate decision and jobs data.

Monday morning’s can always be incredibly quiet. I guess traders use Asian session to wake-up!!

Data Today

Eurozone PPI – 9am GMT

UK Construction PMI – 8.30am GMT

UK Halifax House Prices – 7am GMT

US Fed’s Bernanke, Lockhart and Evans speech – 1pm GMT

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian