What I do every morning after going through the news!

This is how I usually figure out exactly where i should be heading with my strategy for the day. It's not fool-proof, but helps me figure out where i would want to enter the market, and also what's the trend for the day etc.

First thing I do is look at where the U.S equity market is, specifically the Dow Jones and S&P 500, because you can usually tell what's the risk sentiment by looking at how equities are doing. So here's the figures at the end of Friday close.
Dow Jones: 10,303.20
S&P 500: 1,079.25
Looks like equities had dropped further from 10,320 and 1,083.61. Risk aversion still holds.

Now I go to the technicals!

For each pair i look at eg. EUR/USD, I get the day open, close, high and low.
So since I start my day when Asia opens which is when Tokyo opens at 0:00 GMT, I look at my day open and close at that point.
So here's the OHLC for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY (these 4 pairs are what I trade).
EUR/USD: open 1.2841    high 1.2905  low 1.2747  close 1.2755
GBP/USD: open 1.5592    high 1.5679  low 1.5564  close 1.5584
AUD/USD: open 0.8969   high 0.9034  low 0.8916  close 0.8920
USD/JPY: open 86.16      high 86.36     low 85.91   close 85.97

I then calculate the Pivot point using Fxstreet tool Pivot Point Calculator . All you have to do is enter the High, Low and close of the currency pair and you get the Pivot points for the day. I usually calculate the classic pivot point and the camarilla. For intraday i like to look at the R3 and S3 of the camarilla. If these levels break, i then start looking at the classic, as the camarilla R3 and S3 coincide with the R1 and S1 of the classic PP.

EUR/USD
Classic PP: 1.2802.  Camarilla: S3 1.2712  S2 1.2726  R2 1.2784   R3 1.2798
GBP/USD
Classic PP: 1.5609. Camarilla: S3 1.5552   S2 1.5563  R2 1.5605   R3 1.5616   
AUD/USD
Classic PP: 0.8957. Camarilla: S3 0.8888   S2 0.8898  R2 0.8942   R3 0.8952
USD/JPY
Classic PP: 86.08. Camarilla: S3 85.84       S2 85.88    R2 86.05     R3 86.09

Finally I look at the chart and see where the 4 hour and daily charts are, to get an idea of which direction the trend is at.

EUR/USD: 4 hour - bearish but i see a turn up. need to be cautious.    daily - looks very bearish 
GBP/USD: 4 hour - neutral. see some consolidation.   daily - looks very bearish
AUD/USD: 4 hour - looks very bearish       daily - looks very bearish
USD/JPY: 4 hour - looks bearish       daily - neutral. I see some consolidation.

here's an example of what my 15 minute chart would look like. Helps me see good points to enter trades.

Monday Morning Update

It's back to work, and markets have opened.

Here's a bit of a recap of what happened on friday:
Eurozone GDP came out much better than expected, but we still saw the Euro crash against the dollar! Seems like the risk aversion sentiment is much stronger, and probably a lot of positions were taken out for the week end. Along with the Euro, we did see the Aussie and Cable run lower too, as there weren't any data out from these countries on friday.

We had japan's GDP out this morning which came out much lower at 0.1%. There is still the fear of intervention on the horizon, so i think we're going to be seeing a pretty cautious market maybe some volatility in the yen.

There is some economic data out today from the Eurozone and the U.S:
Eurozone CPI - 9am GMT
US Empire Manufacturing - 12.30pm GMT
US TIC flows - 1pm GMT

Saturday love! - Alors on danse

market's are closed. The weekend is here!!

One of the things I like doing during my saturday afternoon's, is getting some music rolling and getting some cleaning down. If you're like me, who goes through the work week dumping things all over your room, then you know exactly what i'm talking about!!

I listen to many different genre's of music depending on my mood. When it comes down to cleaning, I love putting on some house music to get myself in the mode!

So here's a youtube link of an awesome song to get some saturday cleaning done on!

Afternoon Update!

I was completely out of the market this morning, so couldn't really post up a morning update. It is friday though! woohoo!!

Looking at the markets, I am seeing a little bit of a retracement especially after Germany's GDP came out to me better than expected!

Anyway!! Here's an update of what went on yesterday!

We pretty much saw a continuation of the trend that has been ongoing all of this week. U.S equities came off more and negative data coming out of the Eurozone. On the other hand, USDJPY traded higher! Looks like traders are being cautious over a possible intervention, so seems like alot of positions have been closed.

We also have economic data coming out of the Eurozone and the U.S this evening!

Germany GDP - 6am GMT
Eurozone Trade Balance - 9am GMT
Eurozone GDP - 9am GMT
US CPI - 12.30pm GMT
US retail sales - 12.30pm GMT
University of Michigan confidence - 1.55pm GMT

Here's a quick update on the positions i'm holding.

I'm still holding my GBP/USD position and my order on the EUR/USD is still pending.
GBP/USD - I brought down my stoploss to 1.5700, as spot pushed lower.
EUR/USD - daily chart and 4 hour chart still look bearish, so i'm keeping my order in place.

Well it's finally the weekend! So here's a little bit of Dilbert to lighten the mood up!

looking at a swing-low trade - EUR/USD

Just like the cable chart, I found a crossover down on the daily chart! which means - Potential reversal!!

So I looked at the 4- hour chart and i found myself a perfect entry level. Spot broke below the 61.8 fibonacci level, which suggests this is a strong trend reversal. So i decided to place an order to sell Euro at 1.2960.
I'll place the stoploss at the 50.0 fibonacci level and an initial take profit level at the previous low around 1.2730.

Trade Setup:

Sell EUR/USD: 1.2960
Stoploss: 1.3031
Take Profit: 1.2730

As spot drops i'll lower my stoploss as well.

Lets hope this trade works out!

Trade setup - GBP/USD

So when i looked at the daily chart, I noticed a moving average crossover towards the downside!! which means this could be a trend reversal!

So I looked at the 4 hour chart for a potential entry point and I noticed that spot was trading fairly close to the 38.2 fibonacci level. I decided to enter at that point in the market at 1.5673.
I'm placing my stoploss at the 23.6 fibonacci level and initial take profit at the 50.00 fibonacci level.

Trade Setup:

Sell GBP/USD: 1.5673
Stoploss: 1.5783
Take Profit: 1.5557

As spot drops lower i'll move my stoploss lower as well.

Lets hope this trade works out! 

Morning Update

Looks like we had another rolling down the hill day!
i wasn't really in the market during the afternoon, since i was stuck in meetings - bummer. So i ended up missing some pretty damn big moves!

Well lets see what happened yesterday:

we saw some major risk aversions last night with US stock markets under pressure after the some what negative US economic outlook by the FOMC.
At the same time the Eurozone faced some negative news after some irish banks showed up with loan losses and lower profits.
In the UK we some poor news coming out as well with the claimant count lower and softer consumer confidence.

We've got some news coming out of Australia, Europe and the U.S today:

Australia employment data - 1.30am GMT  (+23.5 vs +20.0 cons)

ECB monthly report - 8am GMT

Eurozone industrial production report - 9am GMT

U.S initial jobless claims - 12.30pm GMT

Finally a quick trade update and today's trade strategy:

Yesterday I ended up closing my dinner trade at 1.5671, just before i ended my night. I decided not keep push down my stoploss because market wasn't really moving much at that point of time.
it's alright, i managed to pick up 14 pips here in profit.

Today I actually see 2 trades with potential. They are more medium term though, so hopefully will work out.
check my next posts for the trade set-ups.