EUR/USD 4-hour chart – top of the channel

On the 4-hour chart we can see that spot has reached the top of the upward trend channel and seems to be holding quite strong as a resistance. I’m looking into entering a short position over here.

Zooming into the 15-minute chart for an entry level, I notice that the 10EMA (blue line) has crossed below the 20EMA (red line). MACD and stochastics have also turned negative.

I entered into the trade on spot.

Trade

Short EUR/USD at 1.4148

Stoploss: 1.4195 (47 pips)

1^st Take profit: 1.4101 (move stoploss to breakeven at 1.4148)

2^nd Take profit: 1.4054 (94 pips)

Risk/reward ratio:  2:1

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Euro and Sterling Chart Art

Looking at the EUR/USD 4-hour chart there definitely looks like a strong uptrend going on!

If I zoom into the 1-hour chart, we see the yellow trendline and the 100 SMA(pink line) are coming close to the level 1.3930.

Here’s what I think; 1.3930 looks like a strong technical level that if broken could push EUR/USD lower or could become a strong support level.

I’m going to watch this level, if spot comes close to this level but a candle closes above it, I’ll buy EUR/USD. If a candle closes below this level I’d look to sell here.

  

Looking at the GBP/USD 4-hour chart we can see an upward channel holding up. Spot looks as though it’s coming close to the lower channel levels.

When I zoom into the 1-hour chart, 1.6147 looks like a support level to watch out for, and spot seems to be running lower at the moment so let’s see if this level gets supported.

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

EUR/JPY - cross trade strategy

I see an opportunity on the EUR/JPY cross today!

if i look at the daily chart, there is a strong resistance at 114 level.

when i zoom into the 4-hour chart we can see the EUR/JPY ranging between 114 - 112.

Here's what i plan to do:
I've placed a market order to sell EUR/JPY at 114.
Once that order gets triggered i'll place my stoploss and Take profit order.

lets see how this works out!

Euro hitting a resistance level

The 4-hour chart shows the Euro coming quite close to the resistance level at 1.3735.

The previous uptrend, the Euro wasn’t able to break this resistance.

To clarify this, I’m going to zoom into the 1-hour chart. The 1.3711 level seems to be holding up quite well!

I’m going to play this a little differently where I’m going to place an order to sell Euro instead of waiting for a moving average crossover to occur.

Here’s the order I’m going to place.

Sell EUR/USD at 1.3710. Stop loss 1.3750 (40 pips). Target 1.3630 (80 pips).

When spot moves to 1.3670 (40 pips), I will move my stop loss to breakeven at 1.3710.

Update on the Yen!

Ok so this strategy didn’t quite pull through as the yen pulled lower instead so I ended up not receiving a buy confirmation and let this trade go.

strategy link: yen strategy 

Update on Cable short trade!

So price hit 1.6110 and I moved my stop to 1.6160 as planned. Unfortunately price hit a low of 1.6100 and then bounced back while I was snoozing away. So my stop got hit and I ended up with a 50 pips profit.

It is sometimes quite hard to make a decision when it comes down to trailing stops. Should we keep the stops closer so that we cut out on the opportunity cost when market bounces back as in the case of this trade?

Or do we keep the stop a little further in case the stop gets and runs back down on the trend again costing you the opportunity of more pips.

Tough decision! 

Trade link: cable trade

Yen on an uphill

Looking at the 4-hour chart, USDJPY seems to be consolidated in the range of 83.05 – 83.41.  If I look at the stochastic and MACD it seems like the USDJPY may head upwards, but the ADX is below 25, which suggests there isn’t a strong trend yet.

If I look at the 1-hour chart, we see the 10 EMA has just crossed over the 20 EMA towards the upside and MACD and stochastic support it. However again the ADX is below 25 which suggest there isn’t a strong trend yet.

At the moment I feel that I would play a breakout long on the yen if it breaks above 83.50 with ADX high than 25 on the 1-hour chart. So I’m going to watch this one out today, and enter once I get a confirmation on my charts.

 Update on Cable short trade!

Yesterday evening I left an order to sell cable at 1.6210 which got hit. I’m currently 43 pips in profit woohoo!

I’m going keep my stop loss at 1.6210 (at break-even). When spot moves to 1.6110, I’m move my stop to 1.6160.

Let’s see how this strategy works out! I’m hoping to cash in on more pips by keeping a trailing stop.

Cable looks like its hit its top – potential trade!

Looking at the daily chart of the cable we see spot hitting close to the top of the Fibonacci, which could hold as a resistance. So I’m looking to enter a short position on the cable.

PS. Ignore the buy line on my charts, im currently just testing out the expert advisor function on the metatrader. 

Zooming into the 1-hour chart I notice a little bit of a consolidation occurring between 1.6225 and 1.6250. This looks like a sign of a potential breakout to occur!

Here’s what im going to try out today. I’m going to watch the charts all day and just before I bounce out for the for the evening, I’ll place a sell stop order below the range I’m looking at.

Update on my Euro trade from Last week

An unfortunate way to end a week! But I got stopped out on my trade last week at 1.3638, which pulls in a loss of 68 pips. What a bummer! Well I’m still hopeful for this week, so let’s see how this week works out!

Cable trade closed!

Woohoo!! Up went the cable today all the way to 1.6200, where my profit target was hit!

That leaves me with a profit of 120 pips, which isn’t so bad!

The link to the trade is: cable long trade

Euro trade still waiting it out

I’m still waiting it out on the Euro. Looking at the 1 hour chart it seems like we may see a crossover soon. Crossing my fingers it works my way.

the link to the trade strategy is: Euro short trade

USDJPY found its top?

Looks like USDJPY may have found its top on the 4-hour chart. 84.37 seems to be holding up strongly as a resistance level.

At the same time USDJPY also looks as though it may be ranging. 

A good level to sell USDJPY would be around the 84.37 levels. But keep a stoploss in case a breakout happens. It is after all the holiday season, which means thin markets!    

Range play on the Euro?

Looks like Euro is in a range on the 4 hour chart (pink rectangle). 

green candles have just broken past the 23.6% fib level, and looks like we may just see the pair hit higher up again.

Now i overall still think Euro is bearish, so selling the pair at 1.3469 levels looks like a good level to sell.

But as always i'm going to keep a watch on this, because markets are thin at the moment and there's a chance we could see a breakout.  It's Friday as well, and i'm always extremely careful in opening a new position.

What's do you guys think?  

Cable heading lower - 4 hour chart trade

a red candle has closed completely below the 100 SMA on the 4- hour chart. And looks like the other indicators are also suggesting a downward trend for the sterling, with the Moving average crossover and MACD and stochastics heading lower.


I entered into the position as soon as the candle closed. Since this is a play on the 4 hour chart i'm going to hold this position a little longer than i normally do.

I'm going to use a risk-reward ratio of 1:2 on this trade.

I'm placing my stoploss at 1.5771which is 10 pips above the high of the last candle above the 100SMA. 

I'll place my target level at 1.5309, and if spot moves 100 pips below my entry level, i will move my stoploss to breakeven.

Trade:

Sell GBP/USD at 1.5617

Stoploss at 1.5771

Target at 1.5309

A possible Euro trade in the making.

Looking at the 4 hour chart we can see that Euro is holding up a resistance below the 38.2% fibonacci. Also looks like we have a double top being made.

To reconfirm, the daily chart also is showing the 100 SMA (pink line) to be holding up as a strong resistance. This looks like a good area to sell the Euro. 

However, Euro is stuck in a range at the moment on the 15minutes and 1 hour chart. So i'll only enter into a short trade if i get a confirmation of a moving average crossover, just in case Euro ends up breaking towards the upside.

Trade Ideas - 23/9/10

Euro

Looking at the weekly chart we see that the next resistance level is at 1.3491 which is also the Fibonacci level of 50%. We will have to see whether the resistance level holds. If it doesn’t I would look to selling around those levels.

GBP

The resistance of 1.5727 is still holding quite strong and on the bottom the support level 1.5624 is holding up. I would look to sell around 1.5727 if the resistance holds and to look at buying at 1.5624 if the support holds.

Aussie

Looks quite range bound, so I think I would play the range. I would look to sell around 96.00 (if not broken), and buy around 0.9525. 

Trade ideas

Euro

Resistance level of 1.3161 has been broken so I would look at this level now a support. The next resistance is around 1.3331 level which was just below the high of August 6^th.

I would watch this level and see whether it breaks or not.

If it doesn’t I’d look to sell here at 1.3330.

GBP

The daily Fibonacci level of 50% at 1.5646 has been broken. The next resistance level is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.5727. On the support side the first support to watch for is at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.5565. As this has been broken I would watch this level. The stronger support is at 1.5504 which is around yesterday’s low.

I would look to sell at 1.5727 if it doesn’t break.

Aussie

Upward trend is still intact so I would only look at starting my position with a buy. The resistance level of 0.9500 has been broken so I would look at this as a support level. If 0.9500 holds, I would look to buy here.

JPY

I’m still going to keep quiet here, until I figure out which direction yen is going in.

What I do every morning after going through the news!

This is how I usually figure out exactly where i should be heading with my strategy for the day. It's not fool-proof, but helps me figure out where i would want to enter the market, and also what's the trend for the day etc.

First thing I do is look at where the U.S equity market is, specifically the Dow Jones and S&P 500, because you can usually tell what's the risk sentiment by looking at how equities are doing. So here's the figures at the end of Friday close.
Dow Jones: 10,303.20
S&P 500: 1,079.25
Looks like equities had dropped further from 10,320 and 1,083.61. Risk aversion still holds.

Now I go to the technicals!

For each pair i look at eg. EUR/USD, I get the day open, close, high and low.
So since I start my day when Asia opens which is when Tokyo opens at 0:00 GMT, I look at my day open and close at that point.
So here's the OHLC for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY (these 4 pairs are what I trade).
EUR/USD: open 1.2841    high 1.2905  low 1.2747  close 1.2755
GBP/USD: open 1.5592    high 1.5679  low 1.5564  close 1.5584
AUD/USD: open 0.8969   high 0.9034  low 0.8916  close 0.8920
USD/JPY: open 86.16      high 86.36     low 85.91   close 85.97

I then calculate the Pivot point using Fxstreet tool Pivot Point Calculator . All you have to do is enter the High, Low and close of the currency pair and you get the Pivot points for the day. I usually calculate the classic pivot point and the camarilla. For intraday i like to look at the R3 and S3 of the camarilla. If these levels break, i then start looking at the classic, as the camarilla R3 and S3 coincide with the R1 and S1 of the classic PP.

EUR/USD
Classic PP: 1.2802.  Camarilla: S3 1.2712  S2 1.2726  R2 1.2784   R3 1.2798
GBP/USD
Classic PP: 1.5609. Camarilla: S3 1.5552   S2 1.5563  R2 1.5605   R3 1.5616   
AUD/USD
Classic PP: 0.8957. Camarilla: S3 0.8888   S2 0.8898  R2 0.8942   R3 0.8952
USD/JPY
Classic PP: 86.08. Camarilla: S3 85.84       S2 85.88    R2 86.05     R3 86.09

Finally I look at the chart and see where the 4 hour and daily charts are, to get an idea of which direction the trend is at.

EUR/USD: 4 hour - bearish but i see a turn up. need to be cautious.    daily - looks very bearish 
GBP/USD: 4 hour - neutral. see some consolidation.   daily - looks very bearish
AUD/USD: 4 hour - looks very bearish       daily - looks very bearish
USD/JPY: 4 hour - looks bearish       daily - neutral. I see some consolidation.

here's an example of what my 15 minute chart would look like. Helps me see good points to enter trades.

Update: Closed USD/JPY position

ok so my stoploss got triggered and i closed my position incurring a loss.

which has got me thinking considering i've not been doing so well this week. So i've decided to tweek my strategy a little for intra-day trades.

I need to filter out the moving average crossovers as this whole week i've been in the wrong direction.
I can filter this out, only when i see there is a little bit of momentum such as after a news break.

During the day if it is range trading, I shall enter according to where the supports and resistances are, as well as the pivot point for the day.

since tomorrow is friday. i shall try this strategy first as a demo before i use it for a real play on the market.