Taking a peak at the yen today!

the USDJPY looks interesting today. Take a look at the daily chart!

As you can see there is a strong support level holding up at 81.43! apart from that massive movement (red candle when japan earthquake happened). This level has been strongly supported.

USDJPY also looks like it may hit towards that level today. I'm going to watch this level extremely closely today. But instead of looking at the daily chart i'm going to watch the 4 hour chart. If i see a candle close below 81.43 i'm going to hit a short for another break lower. If i see this level supported I'll hit a buy.

It is Good Friday tomorrow which means i'm on vacation! and Easter Sunday this weekend yippee!!


Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Euro chart attack and an update on the Aussie chart attack

Look at the Euro today!!! pounced right back up!! spot at the moment is at 1.4506.

Looking at the 4 hour chart we see the Euro has breached the resistance level of 1.4502. Two things can happen here, Euro can move lower from here, or break the resistance level and head up.

My plan is to watch if the candle closes below or above this resistance level!

Update on the Aussie chart attack!
Last night Aussie did not reach my support level so i didn't enter into the trade. What a shame!!! looking at how high Aussie has run up today!

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Aussie chart attack!

here's an interesting AUD/USD setup!

Looking at the 4-hour chart, i see a strong resistance at 1.0573 and a strong resistance turned support at 1.0418. Aussie still looks as though it could push a little lower from spot (1.0470).

Here's the plan!

If spot comes close to 1.0418 and if the candle closes above this level i will look to buy here for another movement up.

If the candle closes below this level completely, i will look to sell here for a break-out lower!

what y'all think?

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

Euro and Sterling Chart Art

Looking at the EUR/USD 4-hour chart there definitely looks like a strong uptrend going on!

If I zoom into the 1-hour chart, we see the yellow trendline and the 100 SMA(pink line) are coming close to the level 1.3930.

Here’s what I think; 1.3930 looks like a strong technical level that if broken could push EUR/USD lower or could become a strong support level.

I’m going to watch this level, if spot comes close to this level but a candle closes above it, I’ll buy EUR/USD. If a candle closes below this level I’d look to sell here.

  

Looking at the GBP/USD 4-hour chart we can see an upward channel holding up. Spot looks as though it’s coming close to the lower channel levels.

When I zoom into the 1-hour chart, 1.6147 looks like a support level to watch out for, and spot seems to be running lower at the moment so let’s see if this level gets supported.

Happy Trading!

FxTaurian

potential Euro short trade

Looking at the 4-hour EUR/USD chart, we see a downtrend line forming. The line intersects the 23.6 level of the daily Fibonacci, and we see the 100 SMA slowly crawling down as well to that line. This area looks like it could hold up as a resistance level.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, we see spot pushed up but the trend line seems to hold as a resistance and spot has come off since then.

I will wait though for the 10 EMA (blue line) to cross over the 20 EMA (red line) before I enter a short trade just in case it’s a fake-out.

Keeping a watch on the Euro today and will update when I enter into the trade.

Cable trade from yesterday

My order of 1.6080 got triggered last night and I wasn’t able to place my stoploss order last night which actually ended up benefiting me because price came up this morning.

Today though, I’ve placed a stoploss order at 1.6030, and will move this up when spot hits 1.6130.

Here’s the cable trade link: cable long position

USDJPY found its top?

Looks like USDJPY may have found its top on the 4-hour chart. 84.37 seems to be holding up strongly as a resistance level.

At the same time USDJPY also looks as though it may be ranging. 

A good level to sell USDJPY would be around the 84.37 levels. But keep a stoploss in case a breakout happens. It is after all the holiday season, which means thin markets!    

A possible Euro trade in the making.

Looking at the 4 hour chart we can see that Euro is holding up a resistance below the 38.2% fibonacci. Also looks like we have a double top being made.

To reconfirm, the daily chart also is showing the 100 SMA (pink line) to be holding up as a strong resistance. This looks like a good area to sell the Euro. 

However, Euro is stuck in a range at the moment on the 15minutes and 1 hour chart. So i'll only enter into a short trade if i get a confirmation of a moving average crossover, just in case Euro ends up breaking towards the upside.

Trade Ideas - 23/9/10

Euro

Looking at the weekly chart we see that the next resistance level is at 1.3491 which is also the Fibonacci level of 50%. We will have to see whether the resistance level holds. If it doesn’t I would look to selling around those levels.

GBP

The resistance of 1.5727 is still holding quite strong and on the bottom the support level 1.5624 is holding up. I would look to sell around 1.5727 if the resistance holds and to look at buying at 1.5624 if the support holds.

Aussie

Looks quite range bound, so I think I would play the range. I would look to sell around 96.00 (if not broken), and buy around 0.9525. 

Trade ideas

Euro

Resistance level of 1.3161 has been broken so I would look at this level now a support. The next resistance is around 1.3331 level which was just below the high of August 6^th.

I would watch this level and see whether it breaks or not.

If it doesn’t I’d look to sell here at 1.3330.

GBP

The daily Fibonacci level of 50% at 1.5646 has been broken. The next resistance level is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.5727. On the support side the first support to watch for is at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.5565. As this has been broken I would watch this level. The stronger support is at 1.5504 which is around yesterday’s low.

I would look to sell at 1.5727 if it doesn’t break.

Aussie

Upward trend is still intact so I would only look at starting my position with a buy. The resistance level of 0.9500 has been broken so I would look at this as a support level. If 0.9500 holds, I would look to buy here.

JPY

I’m still going to keep quiet here, until I figure out which direction yen is going in.

Intra-day Trade Ideas

Euro

The 1 hour chart shows a strong resistance at 1.3161 and a strong support at 1.3033.

I would play this range by selling at 1.3160 and buying at 1.3035.

GBP

The 1 hour chart shows a strong resistance at 1.5727, which is also the daily chart Fibonacci level 61.8. Before that, 1.5677 seems to be holding up and on the downside 1.5536 looks like a strong support. I would start with a sell position as sterling seems a little weaker.

I would look to sell at 1.5675 and buy at 1.5538.

Aussie

The Aussie has a strong uptrend on the 4 hour chart, so I would look to start my position with a buy. There seems to be a strong resistance at 0.9489 and a strong support at 0.9328.

I would look to buy Aussie at 0.9330.

USDJPY, I’m a little cautious of, as it’s not moving much and there is still fear of BOJ intervening again. I’d rather keep quiet on this pair until I see a clear direction.

Chart Attack!

Ok I see some potential in the Euro!

If I look at the 1 hour chart, I see the moving averages have crossed up towards the upside. Now I’m still quite bearish on the Euro, so I would look at selling in the white rectangle region which is between the 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci levels.

Let’s go Intra-day on the Sterling!

The 15 minutes chart shows an upward trending line occurring. Here’s what I’m thinking, I could play the trend until just before the economic data, and buy closer to the yellow trend line. Or I could play a momentum game, and sell when a candle runs below the yellow trend line.

I’m honestly not sure where the Aussie is going to go, as I really see it ranging with no real trend short term. The 4 hour chart still looks the same as yesterday.

Same goes for the Yen, I’m tempted to sell, but I just feel it’s too low, so I might just wait for some retracement before I enter a Yen position.

Now that we got the news all sorted out, let’s see what the charts are saying.

Looking at the Euro 4 hour chart, it looks like there is a bit of a range going on. As for me, I’m still not very convinced about Euro strengthening a lot, so I would look into starting my position with a sell.

Looking at the sterling 4 hour chart, it looks like there is a range and a downward channel trend going on as well. As with the Euro, I would look into starting my position with a sell as well.

The Aussie 4 hour chart shows an upward trend channel happening, so looks quite bullish. I think the levels are high to buy, so I would look at some retracement before I’d enter a buy position, and I would only enter a position after the rate decision.

Looks like we have different forms of channels going on here! The dollar-yen too has a downward trend channel occurring on the 4 hour chart.  But I would wait until after the rate decision to enter the yen.

What I do every morning after going through the news!

This is how I usually figure out exactly where i should be heading with my strategy for the day. It's not fool-proof, but helps me figure out where i would want to enter the market, and also what's the trend for the day etc.

First thing I do is look at where the U.S equity market is, specifically the Dow Jones and S&P 500, because you can usually tell what's the risk sentiment by looking at how equities are doing. So here's the figures at the end of Friday close.
Dow Jones: 10,303.20
S&P 500: 1,079.25
Looks like equities had dropped further from 10,320 and 1,083.61. Risk aversion still holds.

Now I go to the technicals!

For each pair i look at eg. EUR/USD, I get the day open, close, high and low.
So since I start my day when Asia opens which is when Tokyo opens at 0:00 GMT, I look at my day open and close at that point.
So here's the OHLC for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY (these 4 pairs are what I trade).
EUR/USD: open 1.2841    high 1.2905  low 1.2747  close 1.2755
GBP/USD: open 1.5592    high 1.5679  low 1.5564  close 1.5584
AUD/USD: open 0.8969   high 0.9034  low 0.8916  close 0.8920
USD/JPY: open 86.16      high 86.36     low 85.91   close 85.97

I then calculate the Pivot point using Fxstreet tool Pivot Point Calculator . All you have to do is enter the High, Low and close of the currency pair and you get the Pivot points for the day. I usually calculate the classic pivot point and the camarilla. For intraday i like to look at the R3 and S3 of the camarilla. If these levels break, i then start looking at the classic, as the camarilla R3 and S3 coincide with the R1 and S1 of the classic PP.

EUR/USD
Classic PP: 1.2802.  Camarilla: S3 1.2712  S2 1.2726  R2 1.2784   R3 1.2798
GBP/USD
Classic PP: 1.5609. Camarilla: S3 1.5552   S2 1.5563  R2 1.5605   R3 1.5616   
AUD/USD
Classic PP: 0.8957. Camarilla: S3 0.8888   S2 0.8898  R2 0.8942   R3 0.8952
USD/JPY
Classic PP: 86.08. Camarilla: S3 85.84       S2 85.88    R2 86.05     R3 86.09

Finally I look at the chart and see where the 4 hour and daily charts are, to get an idea of which direction the trend is at.

EUR/USD: 4 hour - bearish but i see a turn up. need to be cautious.    daily - looks very bearish 
GBP/USD: 4 hour - neutral. see some consolidation.   daily - looks very bearish
AUD/USD: 4 hour - looks very bearish       daily - looks very bearish
USD/JPY: 4 hour - looks bearish       daily - neutral. I see some consolidation.

here's an example of what my 15 minute chart would look like. Helps me see good points to enter trades.

End of the Asia session: Missed out on a big move!

Unfortunately i missed out on a big move!!! i hope i get a chance soon to join the wave. Wasn't able to enter the market today as i've been in meetings all afternoon. Bummer!! well here's the charts just to show you what the waves look like on the sterling!!

trade setup - EUR/USD

so i've found a trade setup for the Euro that i'll be watching out for.

there's been a bullish trend on the Euro which is clearly seen on the 4 hour chart.

So i'm going to be looking at entering the market on a long position.

now when i look at the 1 hour chart i see an area which would be good place to enter.

yesterday low for the EURUSD was 1.2951. which is also close to where the bullish trend line is on the chart.

so i've placed a white square around that area.

as soon as i see a crossover on the EMA's at those levels. i will enter a long position.

Euro - daily chart fibonacci levels

here's something i've noticed on the EUR/USD daily chart.
You can see the 61.8 fibonacci level has just been broken. Here's what i'm thinking.
things can go two ways.
either market is over bought at the moment, which we do sort of see on the stochastics and from here we'll see a correction downwards.

or

we will see the fib level being broken and market going all the way up to the previous high of 1.3665.

i'm going to keep a close watch on the Euro today especially when Europe opens up and see whether things are little more clearer.