What I do every morning after going through the news!

This is how I usually figure out exactly where i should be heading with my strategy for the day. It's not fool-proof, but helps me figure out where i would want to enter the market, and also what's the trend for the day etc.

First thing I do is look at where the U.S equity market is, specifically the Dow Jones and S&P 500, because you can usually tell what's the risk sentiment by looking at how equities are doing. So here's the figures at the end of Friday close.
Dow Jones: 10,303.20
S&P 500: 1,079.25
Looks like equities had dropped further from 10,320 and 1,083.61. Risk aversion still holds.

Now I go to the technicals!

For each pair i look at eg. EUR/USD, I get the day open, close, high and low.
So since I start my day when Asia opens which is when Tokyo opens at 0:00 GMT, I look at my day open and close at that point.
So here's the OHLC for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY (these 4 pairs are what I trade).
EUR/USD: open 1.2841    high 1.2905  low 1.2747  close 1.2755
GBP/USD: open 1.5592    high 1.5679  low 1.5564  close 1.5584
AUD/USD: open 0.8969   high 0.9034  low 0.8916  close 0.8920
USD/JPY: open 86.16      high 86.36     low 85.91   close 85.97

I then calculate the Pivot point using Fxstreet tool Pivot Point Calculator . All you have to do is enter the High, Low and close of the currency pair and you get the Pivot points for the day. I usually calculate the classic pivot point and the camarilla. For intraday i like to look at the R3 and S3 of the camarilla. If these levels break, i then start looking at the classic, as the camarilla R3 and S3 coincide with the R1 and S1 of the classic PP.

EUR/USD
Classic PP: 1.2802.  Camarilla: S3 1.2712  S2 1.2726  R2 1.2784   R3 1.2798
GBP/USD
Classic PP: 1.5609. Camarilla: S3 1.5552   S2 1.5563  R2 1.5605   R3 1.5616   
AUD/USD
Classic PP: 0.8957. Camarilla: S3 0.8888   S2 0.8898  R2 0.8942   R3 0.8952
USD/JPY
Classic PP: 86.08. Camarilla: S3 85.84       S2 85.88    R2 86.05     R3 86.09

Finally I look at the chart and see where the 4 hour and daily charts are, to get an idea of which direction the trend is at.

EUR/USD: 4 hour - bearish but i see a turn up. need to be cautious.    daily - looks very bearish 
GBP/USD: 4 hour - neutral. see some consolidation.   daily - looks very bearish
AUD/USD: 4 hour - looks very bearish       daily - looks very bearish
USD/JPY: 4 hour - looks bearish       daily - neutral. I see some consolidation.

here's an example of what my 15 minute chart would look like. Helps me see good points to enter trades.

Monday Morning Update

It's back to work, and markets have opened.

Here's a bit of a recap of what happened on friday:
Eurozone GDP came out much better than expected, but we still saw the Euro crash against the dollar! Seems like the risk aversion sentiment is much stronger, and probably a lot of positions were taken out for the week end. Along with the Euro, we did see the Aussie and Cable run lower too, as there weren't any data out from these countries on friday.

We had japan's GDP out this morning which came out much lower at 0.1%. There is still the fear of intervention on the horizon, so i think we're going to be seeing a pretty cautious market maybe some volatility in the yen.

There is some economic data out today from the Eurozone and the U.S:
Eurozone CPI - 9am GMT
US Empire Manufacturing - 12.30pm GMT
US TIC flows - 1pm GMT

Saturday love! - Alors on danse

market's are closed. The weekend is here!!

One of the things I like doing during my saturday afternoon's, is getting some music rolling and getting some cleaning down. If you're like me, who goes through the work week dumping things all over your room, then you know exactly what i'm talking about!!

I listen to many different genre's of music depending on my mood. When it comes down to cleaning, I love putting on some house music to get myself in the mode!

So here's a youtube link of an awesome song to get some saturday cleaning done on!

Afternoon Update!

I was completely out of the market this morning, so couldn't really post up a morning update. It is friday though! woohoo!!

Looking at the markets, I am seeing a little bit of a retracement especially after Germany's GDP came out to me better than expected!

Anyway!! Here's an update of what went on yesterday!

We pretty much saw a continuation of the trend that has been ongoing all of this week. U.S equities came off more and negative data coming out of the Eurozone. On the other hand, USDJPY traded higher! Looks like traders are being cautious over a possible intervention, so seems like alot of positions have been closed.

We also have economic data coming out of the Eurozone and the U.S this evening!

Germany GDP - 6am GMT
Eurozone Trade Balance - 9am GMT
Eurozone GDP - 9am GMT
US CPI - 12.30pm GMT
US retail sales - 12.30pm GMT
University of Michigan confidence - 1.55pm GMT

Here's a quick update on the positions i'm holding.

I'm still holding my GBP/USD position and my order on the EUR/USD is still pending.
GBP/USD - I brought down my stoploss to 1.5700, as spot pushed lower.
EUR/USD - daily chart and 4 hour chart still look bearish, so i'm keeping my order in place.

Well it's finally the weekend! So here's a little bit of Dilbert to lighten the mood up!

looking at a swing-low trade - EUR/USD

Just like the cable chart, I found a crossover down on the daily chart! which means - Potential reversal!!

So I looked at the 4- hour chart and i found myself a perfect entry level. Spot broke below the 61.8 fibonacci level, which suggests this is a strong trend reversal. So i decided to place an order to sell Euro at 1.2960.
I'll place the stoploss at the 50.0 fibonacci level and an initial take profit level at the previous low around 1.2730.

Trade Setup:

Sell EUR/USD: 1.2960
Stoploss: 1.3031
Take Profit: 1.2730

As spot drops i'll lower my stoploss as well.

Lets hope this trade works out!

Trade setup - GBP/USD

So when i looked at the daily chart, I noticed a moving average crossover towards the downside!! which means this could be a trend reversal!

So I looked at the 4 hour chart for a potential entry point and I noticed that spot was trading fairly close to the 38.2 fibonacci level. I decided to enter at that point in the market at 1.5673.
I'm placing my stoploss at the 23.6 fibonacci level and initial take profit at the 50.00 fibonacci level.

Trade Setup:

Sell GBP/USD: 1.5673
Stoploss: 1.5783
Take Profit: 1.5557

As spot drops lower i'll move my stoploss lower as well.

Lets hope this trade works out! 

Morning Update

Looks like we had another rolling down the hill day!
i wasn't really in the market during the afternoon, since i was stuck in meetings - bummer. So i ended up missing some pretty damn big moves!

Well lets see what happened yesterday:

we saw some major risk aversions last night with US stock markets under pressure after the some what negative US economic outlook by the FOMC.
At the same time the Eurozone faced some negative news after some irish banks showed up with loan losses and lower profits.
In the UK we some poor news coming out as well with the claimant count lower and softer consumer confidence.

We've got some news coming out of Australia, Europe and the U.S today:

Australia employment data - 1.30am GMT  (+23.5 vs +20.0 cons)

ECB monthly report - 8am GMT

Eurozone industrial production report - 9am GMT

U.S initial jobless claims - 12.30pm GMT

Finally a quick trade update and today's trade strategy:

Yesterday I ended up closing my dinner trade at 1.5671, just before i ended my night. I decided not keep push down my stoploss because market wasn't really moving much at that point of time.
it's alright, i managed to pick up 14 pips here in profit.

Today I actually see 2 trades with potential. They are more medium term though, so hopefully will work out.
check my next posts for the trade set-ups.

Dinner trade! - GBP/USD

ok so this is probably not the best way to be entering into a trade but i was at dinner, and then checked up on the U.S trade balance which wasn't so good. At that point i saw sterling dropping down, so i decided to go short and entered into the trade at 1.5685. I'm still following the trend so lets see how this goes!

Trade:
short GBP/USD at 1.5685
stoploss at 1.5730 ( previous high)
Take profit 1.5600

here's what i'm going to do. like yesterday i'm going to bring down my stoploss, just before i hit the bed so that my profits get covered.

Happy trading!

End of the Asia session: Missed out on a big move!

Unfortunately i missed out on a big move!!! i hope i get a chance soon to join the wave. Wasn't able to enter the market today as i've been in meetings all afternoon. Bummer!! well here's the charts just to show you what the waves look like on the sterling!!

trade updates - sterling and euro

So here's what happened with the two trades i entered in yesterday.

GBP/USD.
i pulled the stoploss over twice during the night. once when spot went below 1.5750, i moved stoploss to 1.5800. Second time when spot moved to 1.5720, i moved stoploss to 1.5760. Unfortunately later in the night, my stop got triggered so i closed the position at 1.5760.
Profit in pips: 54 pips

EUR/USD
As with the cable i also pulled the stoploss lower when spot went below 1.3120. As with the cable, after the FOMC my stop got triggered, so i closed the position at 1.3120.
Profit in pips: 50 pips

overall was a pretty damn good day!! managed to make myself 104 pips!

lets see how today works out!

Morning Update

ok so yesterday until just before the FOMC we saw the dollar quite strong.
After the FOMC we saw the dollar weaken, and the cable and euro rallied!
But looking at the charts, seems like there is still some pressure being placed by the bears.

there are some economic data coming out today:
UK Unemployment rate - 8.30am GMT
Bank Of England quarterly inflation report - 9.30am GMT
U.S trade balance - 12.30pm GMT
US monthly budget statement - 6pm GMT

I think today as well we will see some pullback, so i'd like to again start my trades going short.

so lets see how that goes!

trade setup - EUR/USD

Ok a similar trade also in the Euro. Same reasoning. I see Euro being weaker for the rest of today.

so here's the trade:

Sell EUR/USD at 1.3170. ( support turned resistance).
stoploss at 1.3216 which is the next resistance level
take profit at 1.3100 levels.

lets see if this works out. cross my fingers!

trade for today - GBP/USD

I found a trade! So Europe has come in, and cable has bounced up. I still think for today, cable is going to be quite bearish, and the 4 hour chart shows that as well.

So i entered the trade before a crossover occured on the 15 minutes chart. My reasoning is that 1.5819 is the second support level from the pivot point which was broken earlier in the afternoon. As you can see on the chart, a retracement to that level had occured earlier but failed, so here's round 2 happening, so i figured it's a good level to enter in a short position for an intra-day trade.

So here's my setup

Sell GBP/USD at 1.5814.
Stoploss at 1.5888 ( yesterday's low)
Take Profit - will move my stoploss to 1.5800 after its pushes to 1.5780.

Lets see how this works out!

Morning Update

Wow dollar has seriously strengthened against the Euro, Cable and Aussie!
I was out of the market yesterday, as it was a public holiday down here.

I think what's happening is that, traders are overbought against the dollar, that a sell-off occured from last friday, which is why we've been seeing a retracement occuring.

There was no big news out of europe and the UK last night, so we mainly saw stoplosses being triggered in the Euro below 1.3240 and 1.3220.

The Aussie on the other hand, had some pretty bad economic data out. the home loans report showed a decline to 3.9%, ANZ job advertisements report dropped to 1.3% in July and the confidence report declined to a reading of 2 in July.

We do have economic data coming out today:
Bank of Japan target rate - 4am GMT
Germany CPI - 6am GMT
UK trade balance - 8.30am GMT
US FOMC rate decision - 6.15pm GMT

For today, i think im going to lay quite low, as i'm not quite sure where the market will go tonite. I am going to limit the number of positions i'm holding over night today in case there are some insane movements after the FOMC decision.

End of the week and Asia Session. How about an update.

Ok here's an update of what happened for the rest of the afternoon session and my demo trade.

so price did move up above 1.5900, and so i pushed up the stoploss to get stopped out at 1.5900.
If this trade was real, i would have made 23 pips.

So UK industrial production came out lower than expected, so we saw cable plummet. I do see another trade setup occuring. If price is supported above 1.5819, i would look into entering a long position as that's yesterday's daily low and looks like a strong support.

Demo Friday - trade plan - GBPUSD

Ok here's a trade plan for sterling today. It's a demo trade because i want to see whether my tweaking works out.

so in the chart you can see that the moving average crossover occurs just below the pivot point of 1.5879.

So i decided this would be a good place to enter a long position considering the overall trend is still bullish.

i've decided to keep the stoploss at the previous low at 1.5863, and i'll push the stoploss up once levels go above 1.5900.

so here's the trade:

long GBP/USD at 1.5877. Stoploss 1.6893. Take profit 1.5900.

Morning Update

TGIF!!! and also NFP day!! we will be seeing alot of volatility tonite!

well here's a review of what went on yesterday.

Currencies remained mainly range bound with the US Jobless claims report turning market sentiments from positive to negative. Seems like everyone is waiting for the US NFP tonite for a direction.

Yen treasury yields came down which is why we saw a teeny bit of correction in the yen.

Euro rebounded up to above 1.3200 levels but could break the 1.3235 resistance and dealt back down to 1.3180. Trichet last night was fairly positive in his press conference.

Cable like the Euro rebounded above 1.5900 but found some offers there and came back down.

Aussie was pretty much range bound overnight. Not much movement here.

I think we are going to be seeing a fairly range bound market, with volatility closer in the night around the NFP time.

So here's the economic data we need to watch out for today:
Japan leading indicators - 5am GMT
UK monthly manufacturing production - 8.30am GMT
German industrial production report - 10am GMT
US Non  Farm Payroll 12.30pm - GMT

Update: Closed USD/JPY position

ok so my stoploss got triggered and i closed my position incurring a loss.

which has got me thinking considering i've not been doing so well this week. So i've decided to tweek my strategy a little for intra-day trades.

I need to filter out the moving average crossovers as this whole week i've been in the wrong direction.
I can filter this out, only when i see there is a little bit of momentum such as after a news break.

During the day if it is range trading, I shall enter according to where the supports and resistances are, as well as the pivot point for the day.

since tomorrow is friday. i shall try this strategy first as a demo before i use it for a real play on the market.

Update on trade - Asia session closed

Asia session has closed!

Euro is rallying up and so is the cable. Aussie has been sideways and yen has been rangeing.

in my opinion the rally is just the currencies getting back into the trend. I'm still cautious though of entering these currencies at the moment. I'll wait until after the ECB and BOE decisions, to see which direction the market heads.

As for my dollar-yen. Well the yen is pushing lower against me at the moment, pretty sure my stoploss will get hit soon. Sold much later than i should have.

Lets see how the rest of the evening goes during parts of the Europe session

Trade setup - USD/JPY

Ok so here's an intra-day trade i picked up.

on the 4 hour chart dollar yen looks quite bullish. So i've been looking to go long.
on the chart i saw a crossover on the moving average and the stochastics and MACD positive.

I entered the trade at 86.33
stoploss at 85.98 - which is the pivot point and near the previous swing low.

i'll move my stoploss up if spot crosses above 86.50.

so lets see how things go today. Hopefully I have better luck today!

Morning Update

Good Morning!

We saw last night pretty good economic data coming out of the U.S. ADP employment survey and the ISM services PMI bounced up, which is why we saw the European currencies fall down against the dollar.
But at the same time we saw the Aussie stay resilient against the dollar!

The Euro had some mixed economic data out yesterday, with the retail sales coming up a little but the Eurozone PMI's not doing so well. The Euro sell-off though i think is more of a correction, and i would still look to buy at lower levels.

The Cable as well had some mixed economic data out yesterday, with the Halifax house prices showing an increase and the PMI dropping lower. The cable sell-off as well i think is a mix of a correction and dollar gain. I would still look to buy the cable as well at lower levels.

The Yen still looks bearish, but i would be cautious about selling here as trend could reverse around these levels.

The Aussie had an awesome economic data day yesterday. the trade balance, exports number and house price index all rose higher, which is why we saw the aussie roll higher!

We got quite a bit of economic data coming out today too:
German factory order data - 10am GMT
BOE Interest rate decision - 11am GMT
ECB Interest rate decision - 11.45am GMT
US weekly unemployment claims data - 12.30pm GMT

Update on trade - Asia session closed

so here's an update of my trades during the asian session.

I got stopped out of my cable trade at 1.5914. right after the lower UK PMI that came out earlier in the evening.

at the moment markets just look really choppy in terms of the cable and euro. Not sure which direction it will head. Will have to wait on the U.S economic data and the U.S open to see what happens.

On that note, shall leave y'all with a Dilbert comic strip.

trade for today - GBP/USD

So i was waiting for an entry point for a long position on the cable, which i got once the moving averages crossover'd.

I bought GBP/USD at 1.5941. Kept a stoploss at the previous low of 1.5914. and a Take profit level at 1.6000. Of course if i feel i need to get out earlier i'll do so.
This is a intra-day trade, so i plan to get out of this position once Asia session ends.

Morning Update

I wasn't really in the market yesterday. So didn't manage to play any trades.

But we do have a few economic data's coming out today.
UK Halifax HPI is at 6am GMT
Euro zone's composite and services PMI is at 7.40am GMT
UK services PMI is at 7.58am GMT
Euro zone's retail sales data is at 9am GMT
U.S ADP employment survey is at 12.15pm GMT
U.S ISM non-manufacturing PMI is at 2pm GMT

Here's a bit of an update of the pairs i play:

USDJPY: yen has strengthened alot but Japanese Finance Minister Noda has warned that he would closely watch the FX movements. So there is a little bit of a risk of intervention here. If i was to sell i would put a very close stoploss, in case movement changes.

AUDUSD: Aussie pushed higher yesterday because of the strong figures that came out. there seem to be offer orders placed above 0.9150 and bids coming in just above .9080. So maybe this is a range we could play intra-day.

EURUSD: Euro still very bullish, and we see some hedge fund names taking profit and selling above 1.3200 levels. little high to be going long here, so i'm going to be very cautious with the Euro, keeping tight stoplosses.

GBPUSD: sterling topped out on the Fib resistance at 1.5969 which is the 61.8% retracement on the 1.7044-1.4428 move. but we still looking at a bearish dollar and high chances of 1.6000 being hit. I would look to long sterling but sell around the 1.6000 levels.

Morning Update

hello!!

so how's today looking?

well USDJPY seems to be in a range, and i do hear some bid orders are there around the 86.00 levels.
Euro is still bullish and broke the recent high levels all the way up close to 1.3200.
Cable broke above 1.5800 levels and is now testing 1.5900 levels.
Aussie has come off a little, but i would wait until after the rate decision to really play on the Aussie.

Economic data out today:
first off we have the RBA rate decision which is at 4.30am GMT.
during the afternoon we have the construction PMI out of the UK at 8.30am GMT
followed by the PPI out of Europe at 9am GMT.

In the evening we have the US data coming out.
core PCE report and personal spending and income data at 12.30pm GMT,
and the pending home sales data at 2pm GMT.

lastly the UK nationwide consumer confidence will be released at 11pm GMT.

My strategy?
I'm going to stay off the Aussie until after the rate decision, and play the trend once i see it building.
I'm again going to look at going long on the Euro and cable when i see a little bit of momentum. As of now its playing quietly during this morning asian session.
YEN!  tempted to go long, but i think i'll stick following the trend and going short on any rallies.

So i guess lets see how the rest of the Asian session plays out!

closed sterling position.

so i decided to close my sterling position at 1.5800. I bought sterling at 1.5570.
So i made a profit of 230 pips. pretty damn good huh!!

As far as the economic data is concerned, Euro PMI had no real impact on the Euro movement at all, so we are still seeing Euro trading quite sideways!
UK PMI came out to be at 57.3 which is a 5 month low, but was a little above consensus which was at 57.0. Again don't really see much of an impact on the cable.

As far as trades i'm looking out for. I'm still looking to enter the market long on the Euro and looking to short the yen.

will keep you updated, once i see a good trade to enter!

Monday Mornings: Quiet as always

Not much been happening this morning. I guess everyone is waiting it out for Europe to open.

well looking at the charts we got Euro, Cable and Aussie still looking bullish, and the Yen looking still bearish.

few economic data's coming out today:
UK manufacturing PMI - 8.30am GMT
US ISM manufacturing PMI - 2.00pm GMT

today strategy:

for now i'm actually holding a long sterling position at 1.5570, which is positive in profit at the moment.
i have placed a stoploss order at 1.5640, just in case we see sterling fall.
for now i am looking at sterling hitting 1.5800 levels, so i'm going to wait till europe opens, and see where it takes the cable.

Also intraday, i'm looking to enter long on euro, cable and aussie, and short yen.

so lets see how the afternoon works out later today!